Is Taiwan the Next Ukraine? Scenarios for the Decade Ahead

Taiwan is not on the brink of a 2027 invasion; the real danger is unfolding quietly in the gray zone. In this NYU Riskathon-exclusive webinar, Dr. Minxin Pei dismantles the widely accepted countdown narrative and argues that Beijing's most destabilizing tools are already in motion, from coercive military drills to pressure on undersea cables and commercial air routes. The flashpoint ahead is not the date everyone cites, but the political convergence of 2028, when elections in Taipei, Washington, and across the region collide with a Chinese leadership refining hybrid warfare options that stop short of war yet carry strategic shockwaves. Far from a distant scenario, Pei frames this as an imminent shift in the Taiwan Strait, concealed within procedural escalations that markets and policymakers are still treating as routine

[00:00:00] Introduction
[00:00:56] Why an Invasion Is Unlikely
[00:03:14] Davidson 2027 Prediction
[00:04:14] China’s Slow Preparations for Total War
[00:06:08] Hybrid Warfare Against Taiwan
[00:07:56] Disruptive Gray Zone Scenarios
[00:10:22] Trump as a Stabilizing Factor
[00:11:21] Positive Scenario, Successful Xi-Trump Visits
[00:11:49] Negative Scenario, Trump Turns Against China
[00:13:00] Q1: Is Taiwan the Next Ukraine?
[00:17:25] Q2: China’s Information Operations in Taiwan
[00:19:23] Q3: No More Camouflage in Modern Warfare
[00:22:52] Q4: Would China Exploit Trump’s Presidency?
[00:27:11] Q5: Japan, Korea, Philippines in a Taiwan Conflict
[00:31:13] Q6: The Real Danger Year Is 2028
[00:32:19] Closing Remarks