Monte Carlo Simulation Explained: Smarter Retirement Planning in Boldin

Boldin’s Planner uses Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 retirement scenarios) to give you a Chance of Success — a probability score showing how likely your plan is to work under different market conditions. In this video, our Head of Support, Mike Pappis, explains how Monte Carlo analysis works in retirement planning, how to read your results, and how to adjust your spending for more flexibility and confidence.

We follow John & Linda (newly retired) as they improve their like-to-spend plan from 73% to 95% by separating essential vs discretionary expenses and adding early/late spending phases. You’ll see exactly where to make these changes in Boldin’s Detailed Budgeter.

What you’ll learn:
✅ What Monte Carlo simulation means in retirement planning and why it’s not a crystal ball prediction
✅ How to interpret your “Chance of Success” and what different percentage ranges actually mean
✅ Why a 60–80% score can still be healthy if you have flexible spending in your plan
✅ How to improve your probability of success by separating essential vs discretionary expenses
✅ When to add spending phases (more travel early, less later) to match your lifestyle goals
✅ How often to review and update your plan for the best long-term results

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:25 What “Chance of Success” really means (not a prediction)
01:05 Monte Carlo in Boldin: 1,000 scenarios
01:45 Interpreting 60–90%: it’s about flexibility
02:25 Goals trade-offs: spending now, legacy later
03:05 Live demo: John & Linda’s plan in Boldin
03:45 Basic vs Detailed Budgeter
04:20 Must-spend vs Like-to-spend (dining & travel examples)
05:15 Adding spending phases (early vs later years)
06:00 Re-check plan every 6–12 months
06:40 Key takeaways & next steps

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