Risk and Cumulative Impacts in Uncertain Ocean Contexts: Oil & Gas Case Study (Sarina Lincoln, SU)

Sarina Lincoln 1, Susa Niiranen 1, Kelly Ortega 2, Lynne Shannon 2

1 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
2 University of Cape Town, Marine and Antarctica Research Centre for Innovation and Sustainability, Department of Biological Sciences, South Africa 

Global oceans are increasingly shaped by diverse anthropogenic pressures, with complex, uncertain, and often poorly understood ecological consequences. Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) have emerged as a framework to address this complexity, yet operationalization remains difficult, particularly in data-poor contexts where ecological monitoring is sparse. Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) models offer a promising approach as they can integrate knowledge from heterogeneous sources, including empirical data and expert knowledge, while supporting adaptive management processes. Here, we apply BBN modelling to assess ecological risks associated with the emerging offshore oil and gas sector in South Africa, a rapidly expanding industry despite limited understanding of its ecological impacts.

Oil and gas activities create multiple stressors, from seismic noise and drilling impacts to oil spills, yet their cumulative effects within South Africa’s already pressured marine ecosystems remain largely unknown. Drawing on limited time-series data, grey literature, and expert knowledge interviews, we develop a participatory BBN to evaluate trade-offs and uncertainties linked to sector expansion, and explore alternative future scenarios to assess ecosystem risks and management implications. This study demonstrates the utility of BBNs for advancing IEAs in data poor systems and underscores the need for proactive strategies to manage new marine industries in the Global South.