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What is the Base Rate Fallacy? (Easiest Explanation)
Автор: Social Science Explainer
Загружено: 2025-05-15
Просмотров: 1257
Описание:
The base rate fallacy is a cognitive error that occurs when individuals ignore the overall prevalence of a characteristic in a population when evaluating the likelihood of an event. Instead of considering the base rate, or prior probability, people often focus on specific information or anecdotal evidence that appears more relevant. This fallacy can lead to faulty reasoning and misjudgment, especially in fields like medical diagnosis, legal reasoning, and risk assessment. As a result, individuals may overestimate or underestimate the true probability of events based on skewed or limited data.
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