Patriots vs. Buccaneers (Drake Maye at Baker Mayfield) Predictions

Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Patriots 20. Baker Mayfield edges out Drake Maye in a razor-close Week 10 battle, fueled by Tampa Bay’s rested defense and home-field advantage. Expect late-game drama and a defining moment for both QBs.

🏈 Patriots vs. Buccaneers: Week 10 Preview & Prediction

Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Records: Patriots (7–2), Buccaneers (6–2)
Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
Over/Under: 44.5

🔥 Why the Buccaneers Might Win

Post-bye momentum: Tampa Bay is coming off a Week 9 bye, healthier and sharper.
Elite pass rush: The Bucs rank 7th in EPA per play defensively and generate pressure at elite rates. That’s bad news for Drake Maye, who’s been sacked six times in back-to-back games.
Home-field edge: Raymond James Stadium has been a fortress this season, and Mayfield thrives in high-stakes home games.

🧠 Why the Patriots Could Steal It

Drake Maye’s breakout: Maye leads the NFL in passer rating and completion percentage, and ranks 5th in QB rushing yards. His dual-threat ability could neutralize Tampa’s pressure.
Six-game win streak: New England is red-hot, with a 4–0 road record and a clutch win over Atlanta last week.
Defensive upgrades: The Patriots’ defense has been flashing in advanced metrics, even with a struggling offensive line.

🛡️ X-Factors

Baker Mayfield’s Comeback Story: After a week of rest, Mayfield is looking to revive his MVP candidacy.
Drake Maye’s MVP escapability: If Tampa can’t contain him outside the pocket, Maye could flip the game script.
Turnover battle: Both teams have opportunistic defenses, one pick or fumble could decide this.

🧠 Final Take

This is a true measuring-stick game for both teams. The Patriots are surging, but Tampa’s rest, pressure, and home-field edge give them a slight advantage. Expect a back-and-forth thriller with playoff implications.