We Haven't Seen This Since 1930 | Eric Pachman on Why the Labor Market is Lying to You

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Eric Pachman of Bancreek Capital to explore the intersection of data, economics, and investing. Eric shares his unique journey from the corporate world to healthcare transparency and ultimately to building a data-driven investment firm rooted in information theory. We dive deep into employment trends, healthcare’s role in the economy, immigration, inflation, and how his systematic process identifies companies with the endurance to thrive.

Topics Covered

Eric’s unconventional career path: from Morgan Stanley and ExxonMobil to founding 46Brooklyn and joining Band Creek
How personal experiences led him to tackle healthcare transparency and drug pricing reform
The role of *information theory* in investing and the foundation of Band Creek’s systematic process
Building powerful data visualizations to understand labor markets, inflation, and structural economic changes
Why healthcare dominates recent U.S. job growth and the risks of overreliance on one sector
The impact of immigration on labor force growth and structural inflation
Key drivers of inflation and how to interpret CPI and PCE data
How Band Creek applies systematic endurance and the Kelly Criterion to equity selection
Sector exposures and lessons learned from applying data-driven models internationally
Eric’s views on cognitive biases, why most investors can’t reliably beat the market, and the power of data analysis

Timestamps

00:00 – Opening remarks and employment trends
03:00 – Eric’s career path and founding of 46Brooklyn
07:45 – Transition to Bancreek and focus on information theory
10:30 – The power of data visualization and labor market insights
17:00 – Healthcare’s outsized role in job growth
21:40 – Structural vs. cyclical risks in healthcare
28:00 – Medicaid, elderly care, and employment implications
32:50 – Immigration’s role in labor supply and economic growth
38:15 – CPI visualization and key inflation drivers
43:30 – How macro research informs Bancreek’s investment process
46:30 – Applying information theory and systematic endurance to stock selection
53:20 – Valuation, quality, and sector patterns in Band Creek ETFs
58:00 – International insights from applying the model abroad
58:25 – Standard closing questions: Eric’s lessons for investors
1:03:00 – Where to find Eric’s work and final wrap-up

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https://x.com/EricPachman