Ukraine's Biggest Liability Volodymyr Zelensky /Patrick Henningsen & Lt Col Daniel Davis

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The discussion focuses on Ukraine’s political future, Zelensky’s diminishing usefulness to Western powers, and the widening gap between Ukrainian, Russian, and Western objectives.

Key points:

Zelensky’s future is uncertain. Western governments may eventually replace him—potentially through a disguised political intervention—once he’s no longer useful for messaging or fundraising. However, they appear to prioritize ending the war first.

Negotiations are deadlocked.

Russia refuses to negotiate with Zelensky or accept his signature on any deal.

Zelensky publicly presents proposals such as demilitarized zones or economic zones, but Ukrainian officials contradict him the next day, making their position appear incoherent.

Russia insists any ceasefire requires Ukrainian withdrawal and that the territory will remain under Russian-aligned control, even if not with regular Russian troops.

On the battlefield, major Ukrainian defensive positions continue to fall. Russia is advancing and consolidating control in the Donbas and elsewhere. Zelensky’s proposals for referendums in the Donbas are dismissed as unrealistic.

Elections and safety concerns are being framed by Zelensky as reasons for needing a ceasefire, but critics note past Ukrainian attacks on Russian-held regions during elections, undercutting his argument.

Russia’s core priorities remain unchanged:

Security guarantees for its western border

Protection of Russian-speaking populations

A long-term political arrangement preventing future threats from a Western-aligned Ukraine

Europe remains focused on information warfare, pushing narratives that Russia is suffering enormous casualties. Media outlets like Times Radio and political figures are claiming extremely high Russian losses.

Evidence contradicts these claims.

Body swaps reportedly show ratios like 40 Ukrainian bodies returned for 1 Russian.

Ukraine is said to have few Russian prisoners to exchange, while Russia has many Ukrainians.

Observers say Western casualty narratives are used to justify continued support.

Both sides conceal their true casualty numbers, but Ukraine depends more heavily on Western perception management.

Ukrainian morale is deteriorating, as seen in widespread draft resistance and videos showing public anger at forced conscription.

Overall, the conversation argues that the West, Ukraine, and Russia have fundamentally incompatible objectives, making a negotiated settlement unlikely under Zelensky. Meanwhile, battlefield realities and political inconsistencies are weakening Ukraine’s leverage.