GDP doesn’t explain life expectancy, but care does

We’re constantly told that people in rich countries live longer and that GDP growth is therefore the route to health, well-being, and social progress.

But the evidence is far less simple than the slogans.

In this video, I use 2022 data to show four versions of the same relationship between GDP per person and life expectancy, and explain how the way economists present that data can create a misleading story.

The key point is this: the link between income and life expectancy is non-linear. Once basic needs are met, the curve flattens. Beyond that point, what matters most is not GDP but inequality, housing, healthcare access, stability, and social care, or, in other words, the politics of care.

This is why GDP fetishism is not only intellectually empty. It becomes politically dangerous.

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00:00 – Why Life Expectancy Really Matters
01:12 – GDP and the Simple Story People Love
02:26 – What the Data Is (and Isn’t) Showing
03:40 – Scatterplot Version One: The Log Scale Illusion
05:04 – Why Log Scales Mislead
06:18 – Scatterplot Version Two: A Linear View
07:36 – Correlation Is Not Causation
08:58 – Why GDP Doesn’t Explain Health Outcomes
10:14 – The US, the UK and the Myth of Wealth
11:36 – Rolling Averages and the Income Plateau
12:56 – When Care Matters More Than Growth
14:08 – The Political Misuse of GDP
15:14 – What We Should Measure Instead

TRANSCRIPT
A transcript for this video is available at: https://www.taxresearch.org.uk

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ABOUT RICHARD MURPHY
Richard Murphy is Emeritus Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School. He is director of Tax Research LLP and the author of the Funding the Future blog. His best-known book is ‘The Joy of Tax’.

This video was edited by Thomas Murphy.

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Professor Richard Murphy explores the relationship between life expectancy and gross domestic product per capita. He uses data to show a linear correlation at lower GDP levels, but this trend does not continue indefinitely. Further graphs illustrate longevity leveling off at higher GDPs, suggesting diminishing returns in economic growth.