How Elite Surplus and Inequality Lead to Societal Upheaval with Peter Turchin | TGS 164

(Conversation recorded on November 22nd, 2024)

The first few months of the new year have brought a cacophony of political news and power plays, bringing with it an uproar of public outrage in the United States and around the world. In the midst of an unprecedented moment in modern history, what can history – and even mathematics – teach us about moments of political unrest and upheaval?

In this episode, Nate is joined by complexity scientist, Peter Turchin, to discuss his work modeling the key factors that drive patterns of peace, turmoil, and revolution in nations throughout history - and how those connect to the situation in the United States today. Turchin outlines the cyclical nature of ‘elite overproduction’ and its role in political disintegration, emphasizing the importance of economic inequality and elite struggles for control.

How does a declining standard of living, as seen in the U.S. over recent decades, affect a nation’s stability, civic engagement, and levels of violence? In what ways has history been shaped by the ‘wealth pump’ moving economic power towards the hands of the few? Lastly, how can we use these historical lessons to strengthen our communities and act collectively in times of chaos and instability?


About Peter Turchin:

Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist who works in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call Cliodynamics. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical macrosociology, economic history and cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases.

Currently his main research effort is directing the Seshat Databank project (and its offshoot, CrisisDB) which builds and analyzes a massive historical database that enables us to empirically test predictions from theories attempting to explain why and how complex human societies evolved, and why they periodically experience political breakdown. Turchin has authored ten books. His most recent books are End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration and The Great Holocene Transformation (forthcoming).

Show Notes and More:
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00:00 - Introduction
04:05 - Mathematical Chaos
06:35 - Limits to Growth
08:00 - Elite Overproduction
12:42 - Biology of Hierarchy
15:06 - Oligarchs
17:40 - Elites and Collapse
22:00 - Elites and Counterelites
25:27 - Historical Elite Overproduction
33:11 - How to Avoid This
36:24 - Peter’s Predictions
43:16 - Energy, Resources, and Ecology
45:29 - Elites Across the Globe
48:39 - Declining Population
50:44 - The Carbon Pulse and AI
54:53 - Most Pressing Issue
58:10 - Closing Questions