Minimize Variance, Maximize JuJu – Dan Abrams on Smarter Sports Betting

Welcome in, everybody, to Gambling With Good JuJuuuuuuu—the show with more bank than roll. Or maybe it’s more roll than bank. Either way, we’re working on it.

This week, Juice and Breezy are joined by Dan Abrams, author of But How Much Did You Lose?: How to Win More at Sports Betting by Losing Less. Dan breaks down the art and science of bankroll management, and why minimizing variance might just be the next-level edge you didn’t know you needed. We talk about the difference between expected value vs. expected growth, bet sizing for multiple pending plays, and why the best way to win more is to lose smarter.

Dan also shares how his background in engineering and poker (RAZZ, anyone?) shaped his unique approach to betting, and why your biggest leak might not be what you think.

Whether you’re building a model or just trying to survive the next cold streak, this episode is a must-listen.

💡 Follow Dan on Twitter @DoctorRazzWSOP
📚 Grab his book on Amazon
🎧 Like, subscribe, and hit us up @goodjujubets
🧢 Support the pod at goodjujubets.net

Good JuJu to your bets, and we’ll see you in two weeks!

0:00 Intro to the Show
1:30 We welcome in Dan Abrams to talk about his book and bankroll management
2:10 Does hedging your bet make sense, mathematically?
4:09 Expected Value (EV) and Expected Growth (EG)
4:44 Dan defines Expected Growth in regards to gambling
5:30 Bankroll growth and how it factors in the equation
6:51 Kelly Criterion and Full Kelly
9:30 Square Root bet sizing
10:30 Betting to Risk vs Betting to Win
16:40 Two Ways to lose: Unprofitable plays and betting too much on profitable ones
18:50 Hedging options in sports betting, partial hedging
20:30 Efficient Markets in sports betting
22:30 Minimizing variance in casino gambling, is it possible?
23:00 Variance is bad for everyone in gambling
24:15 The Risk of Ruin in betting
25:45 Hedging your bet vs using the native sports book cash out option
27:10 Juice brings up blackjack yet again
29:30 Real life example of using Dan's bet sizing method
30:20 Breezy mentions Caesars new parlay promo terms, and it isn't great
32:20 Using exchanges for hedging near post
33:10 Auto-hedging and understanding the value side in arbitrage betting
35:10 Top down betting and hedging your parlay
37:00 Sharp edge vs square edge in sports betting
38:50 Will breezy start hedging now?
40:40 What Dan hopes people take away from his book 'But how much did you lose?'
42:45 What is Razz Poker and how did Dan get so excited about it
45:40 Does Dan recommend Poker or Sports Betting for new gamblers