Peace on Paper, War in Reality? Why Ukraine’s Deal With Trump Faces Huge Obstacles

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky travels to Washington for another high-stakes meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, hopes are once again being raised around a revised 20-point peace plan aimed at ending Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Speaking live with Al Jazeera from Vancouver, I explained why expectations should remain low.

Despite Kyiv editing the proposal to tilt it more in Ukraine’s favor, the Kremlin has already signaled it will reject key provisions. Based on my experience with the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, I warned that implementation would be extraordinarily difficult — especially the proposed vast demilitarized zone, which would require monitoring in an environment where Russian forces have repeatedly used deception, denial, and concealment as standard tactics.

I also raised serious concerns about one of the plan’s most problematic elements: a nationwide Ukrainian referendum. With millions of Ukrainians displaced abroad, diplomatic missions lacking the capacity to run a vote at that scale, and large swathes of Ukrainian territory under Russian occupation, the prospect of a fair and legitimate referendum appears deeply unrealistic.

While Ukrainians living under occupation describe their conditions as “hell on earth” and overwhelmingly want a return to Ukrainian sovereignty, the political and logistical realities make a clean peace deal elusive.

Finally, I questioned the durability of any U.S. security guarantees — even if agreed to — noting that future administrations, or even President Trump himself, could reverse course, leaving Ukraine exposed once again.

📍 Interview: Al Jazeera English
🎙️ Live from Vancouver