Australia's most valuable export, iron ore, is getting much less valuable | The Business | ABC NEWS

Iron ore is Australia's most valuable export, but declining demand from Chinese steel mills and trade uncertainty are combining with growing global production to send prices lower. China's property sector is still in decline and steel is being hit by US tariffs. New housing floor space has fallen from more than two-trillion square metres a year in 2021, to just over 500-billion square metres last year. Steel production in China has also flattened, and price of Chinese steel rebar, which is a key construction product, hasn't been this low since 2017. Australian producers were already opening new mines when the cracked down on Chinese indebted property developers began. Beijing's other steel-consuming sectors, like car manufacturing and infrastructure, haven't be able to fill the gap. The Australian government projections show the value of iron ore export will be slashed from $141 billion in 2023/24 to just $81 billion by 2029/30. Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest recently warned the Pilbara could become a 'wasteland', as steelmakers look for iron ore deposits with higher iron content for green steel furnaces. Both Platts and Fastmarkets have re-jigged their benchmark price indices changing it from 62 per cent to 61 per cent iron content to reflect the lower quality of shipments from the Pilbara. One of the main solutions proposed is to make green iron in Australia and export it overseas.

Rio Tinto also has the Simandou project in Guinea with another Chinese partner. It's ore has 64-per cent iron content and will be ready to ship by the end of the year. But not everyone's convinced it'll shift the needle on global supply, or become a go-to for green steelmakers.
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