The Independent Advisors Podcast Episode 316

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📈 Market Performance & Current Events (02:53 - 01:27)
Q2 GDP revised upward from 3% to 3.3% annualized growth, driven by strengthening exports and domestic investment.
Market volatility observation: Tuesday post-Labor Day weakness followed by Wednesday rally, highlighting media narrative inconsistency.

📊 Seasonality Analysis (06:23 - 09:14)
September historically weak: Worst performing month since 1950 for major indices, particularly challenging in post-election years.
Current market positioning: Haven't experienced significant pullback since April lows, creating potential opportunity for buyers during any September weakness.
Contrarian perspective: Excessive focus on September weakness in media might indicate potential for better-than-expected performance.

💵 Corporate Buyback Activity (10:44 - 16:37)
Record buyback pace: US companies announced nearly $1 trillion in share repurchases year-to-date, on track to exceed $1.1 trillion by year-end.
Major participants include Apple ($100 billion), Nvidia ($60 billion), Alphabet/Google ($40 billion), and major banks each over $40 billion.
Buyback significance: Acts as 'buyer of last resort' mechanically supporting stock prices while reflecting strong corporate profitability.

🌍 Currency and International Markets (12:15 - 12:15)
Dollar weakness driving international outperformance: Weak US dollar throughout 2024 corresponding with international equity outperformance.
Skepticism on sustainability: Concerns about international markets' ability to maintain outperformance due to shorter work weeks and slower growth rates compared to US.

🏠 Housing Market Dynamics (18:04 - 19:42)
Supply-demand imbalance: Redfin data shows 508,000 more home sellers than buyers in June 2024.
Household debt management: Despite higher mortgage rates, household debt service remains below historical norms.
Pricing pressure concerns: Oversupply of sellers versus buyers suggests potential downward pressure on home prices.

🏦 Federal Reserve Policy Shift (22:27 - 25:19)
Major framework change: Fed adopted new approach removing 2% average inflation target reference and focusing on employment shortfalls.
Interpretation: Policy shift reflects recognition that achieving 2% inflation from current ~3% levels would require substantial economic pain.
Rate cut expectations: September 18th meeting expected to deliver first rate cut since December 2024, with potential impact on $7.4+ trillion in money market funds.

💼 Financial Planning Perspective (26:51 - 29:57)
AI job displacement concerns: Historical analysis shows technological advances have created 6 billion jobs despite continuous industry disruption.
Employment market trends: Current wage growth for job stayers exceeding job switchers for first time in years, indicating stable employment conditions.

Hosts:
Mark McEvily - Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner
Matthew Jessup – Chief Executive Officer, Chief Compliance Officer, and Managing Partner
Address: 35 Park Ave. Dayton, OH 45419
Phone: 937-938-9105
https://www.jessupwealthmanagement.com/

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