Silver Blasts $75! COMEX OI +18%, Managed Money Net Long – $100 Coming?

Silver Blasts $75! COMEX OI +18%, Managed Money Net Long – $100 Coming?

Silver just exploded through $75 with 5% daily gain – COMEX open interest +18% at 165K contracts.
Managed money flipped net long 28K contracts while shorts squeeze amid 14K+ tonnes delivered.

This Gray Ledger analysis decodes why this isn't holiday noise: industrial demand (solar/EV/AI), flat supply, weak USD, Fed cuts, Russia/China hoarding, and technicals screaming $80–$100+ targets in a historic bull run.

What You Will Learn:
The $75 Breakout: Not Fake, Fundamental
Silver up ~150% YTD, demolishing resistance after grinding $20–30s in 2024

Single-day ~5% surge on expanding volume – classic genuine momentum, not thin holiday trading
Positioning Data Screams Bullish

COMEX open interest ~165K contracts (+18% YoY) – participation expanding, not contracting

CFTC: Managed money (hedge funds/CTAs) ~28K net long (flipped from net short/flat earlier 2025)
Shorts (bullion banks) forced to cover amid physical delivery pressure

Physical Squeeze: Delivery Notices Explode
COMEX 2025 deliveries already -14K tonnes – persistent tightness in London/COMEX

Shorts can't roll positions higher; must buy back physical or reduce exposure

Historic Precedents Match Perfectly
1979–80: $5 → $50 (18 months), explosive rallies + corrections

2010–11: $18 → ~$50 (8 months), RSI -70 entire phase

Current: same hallmarks + stronger industrial backdrop (absent in prior runs)

Industrial Demand: Inelastic Rocket Fuel
Solar: -100M oz/year by 2025 (~12% global mine supply)

EVs: 25–50g per vehicle, tens of millions oz as adoption accelerates

AI data centers: massive silver for cooling/conductivity/power systems
Mine supply flat at ~800M oz/year; new mines take 5–10 years

Monetary Tailwinds: Perfect Storm
DXY 98, -9% YTD after Fed Dec cuts + 2026 easing signals

Low rates = zero opportunity cost for non-yielding silver

Goldman: gold to $4,900; GSR compressing (80+ → 60–70s, -50 historically = silver acceleration)
Geopolitical Hoarding: Nation-State Buying

Russia: +4,000 tons silver reserves (strategic/national security asset)

China: silver export restrictions 2026 – prioritizing domestic solar/EV/AI needs

Resource nationalism signals real scarcity, not speculation

Technicals: Parabolic, Not Overbought
14-day RSI 75 (stays elevated in bull runs like 2011 silver/BTC 2017)

MACD bullish, stochastics momentum, trend algos aligned

Measured moves target $80, $100, $120–150; inflation-adjusted 1980 peak = ~$170
Risks Balanced Against Upside

Fed hawkish reversal (unlikely: slowing economy, debt favors easing)

Geopolitics ease (industrial demand persists)
Recession (history: PMs shine via QE/debasement, as in 2008)

Positioning Plays (Educational Framework)

Physical silver: pure exposure to squeeze, no counterparty risk (coins/bars/allocated)

ETFs (SLV): liquid tactical trades, minimal costs (counterparty risk in extreme tightness)

Miners (First Majestic, Pan American, Hecla): 2–3x leverage to spot price

Layered approach: core physical + ETF tactical + miner upside

Disclaimer:
This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, commodity, or digital asset. Trading and investing involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions. The views expressed here are solely those of the creator and do not represent the views of any affiliated organizations or entities.

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