E462 The Bullvine Dairy Curve: 15,000 U.S. Farms by 2035 and Under 10,000 by 2050 – Who’s...

By 2035, roughly 15,000 U.S. dairies will be doing the work that nearly 30,000 did a generation ago. By 2050? We're looking at well under 10,000 herds. This isn't worst-case speculation—it's the middle of the road, based on the same 4% annual decline USDA's Economic Research Service has tracked for over two decades. In this episode, we introduce the Bullvine Dairy Curve: a structural forecast and decision-making framework that shows exactly who survives consolidation—and who gets priced out. If you're running a dairy operation today, this episode lays out the math, the paths, and the five questions you need to answer before the curve answers them for you.
Key Takeaways:
Why 15,000–16,000 U.S. farms by 2035 and under 10,000 by 2050 is now the baseline—not the worst caseHow Canada's dairy sector tracks a similar path: from 9,256 farms today toward 6,500 by 2035 and 4,000–5,000 by 2050The three structural paths: business-as-usual, faster consolidation, and managed transition—and what drives eachWhy the 150–500 cow "middle" faces the sharpest squeeze, with $75,000–$100,000/year in structural losses for herds running average costsThe only herd size class that actually grew between 2017 and 2022—and what that signals for processor and lender behaviorWhy robots amplify whatever is already in your numbers—and when AMS makes sense vs. when it automates a lossHow to reframe "strategic exit" as harvesting equity, not admitting defeatThe five barn-level questions every producer must answer: lane choice, true cost per cwt, tech ROI, succession, and regional strategyThis episode unpacks the Bullvine Dairy Curve using hard data from the 2017 and 2022 Census of Agriculture, USDA Economic Research Service reports, and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Dairy Sector Profile. Almost 40% of U.S. dairies disappeared between 2017 and 2022—yet total milk production increased. The litres aren't vanishing; they're concentrating into larger freestall and dry-lot systems as processors build $11 billion in new capacity around mega-suppliers, not 300-cow herds.
For mid-size operations, the math is brutal. A 300-cow herd running "average" costs and fully exposed to commodity pricing can bleed over $100,000 a year once full labour and capital costs are counted. That's not a bad year—that's structure. The episode walks through a real-world example of a 320-cow Upper Midwest herd that discovered a $0.72/cwt gap they didn't know existed.
Finally, we reframe the exit conversation. In every other sector, cashing out when equity is strong is called a successful business cycle. If the curve shows your cost structure is hitting a ceiling, executing a strategic exit is leadership—not failure. It protects generational wealth and lets you define your legacy on your terms, not the bank's.
Read the full Bullvine Dairy Curve article, including the three-path scenario table and $100k squeeze breakdown, at https://www.thebullvine.com/dairy-mar...
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