Recession Warning: The Real Economy Is 'Very, Very, Very Weak' | Craig Fuller

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The freight industry has long been thought of the circulatory system of the economy.

It's how the things bought & sold through commerce get from point A to point B in the real world.

Historically, when trucking frieght loads diminish, it's usually correlated with a weakening economy. And if it gets bad enough, a recession.

Today's guest is Craig Fuller of Freightwaves, price reporting agency (PRA) focused on the global freight market and the leading provider of high-frequency data for the global supply chain.

He recently released a prediction that the US freight trucking industry is about to experience "the largest capacity purge in history"

We'll ask him what that means for the economy, as well as the hundreds of thousands of workers he expects to be impacted by it.

#recession #trucking #freight

0:00 - Prediction of Largest Capacity Purge in Trucking History
2:37 - Political Impact on Driver Supply and Capacity
3:01 - Stagflationary Implications of Purge
4:29 - High-Level Economic Implications of Report
4:48 - Focus on Goods Economy and Physical Consumption
5:25 - Freight Volumes Down 17% Year-Over-Year
7:05 - Freight Data as Leading Indicator for Economy
8:39 - Epic Collapse in Freight Demand Since Valentine's Day
10:26 - K-Shaped Economy: Goods vs. Services Sectors
11:18 - Hyperscalers Driving GDP but Employing Few
13:05 - Sector-Specific Issues: Energy, Auto, Housing, Manufacturing
15:03 - Unequivocal Weakness in Underlying Economy
15:52 - Policymaker Denial Based on Selective Data
20:06 - AI as Cost-Efficiency Tool, Not Revenue Generator
21:16 - Potential Job Displacement from AI Success
23:21 - Concern Over Delayed AI Returns Exposing Weakness
26:09 - Parallels to Dotcom Hype in AI Narratives
27:04 - Frustration with Tariff Policies Stalling Manufacturing
29:08 - Policy Instability Sapping Investment Confidence
30:01 - National Security Justification for AI Spending Questioned
35:02 - Trucking as Number One Job in 29 States
35:48 - Knock-On Effects of 600,000 Driver Purge
36:45 - Purge Targeting Unqualified Immigrant Drivers
37:45 - Lax Regulations Enabling Unsafe Drivers
40:41 - Safety Risks from Unqualified Drivers
41:40 - 5,000 Annual Truck Fatalities, Up 40% Since 2014
45:13 - Tourist Visa Drivers and Organized Crime
46:03 - Economic Impact: Legitimate Operators Insolvent
49:02 - 8% of Industry Failing Opioid Tests
50:00 - Purge as Cleanup of Riffraff
53:07 - Outrage Over Unqualified Drivers
55:03 - More Accidents Involving Immigrants
56:03 - Court Rulings and Litigation on CDLs
57:58 - Write Congressmen for Reforms
58:53 - Trucking Automation 10-15 Years Away
1:00:49 - Easier to Automate Controlled Environments First
1:02:01 - Space Commercialization as Supply Chain Issue
1:04:14 - Wealth Building and Investment Themes
1:05:04 - Large Truckload Operators to Benefit
1:05:41 - Railroads as Long-Term Investments
1:06:05 - Warehouse Operators Like Prologis
1:06:34 - Free Consultation with Financial Advisers
1:07:48 - Where to Follow Craig and FreightWaves
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