TED-Ed's Frog Riddle Is Wrong

TED-Ed presented a riddle last week based on a classic probability problem. However in the riddle there is a small and seemingly insignificant detail that changes the calculation. In this video I present the pertinent details of the frog riddle, explain its connection to the boy or girl paradox, and then do a detailed calculation of what I believe is the correct probability.

TED-ED frog riddle:    • Can you solve the frog riddle? - Derek Abbott  

Blog post (another calculation if the probability a male frog croaks is p): http://wp.me/p6aMk-4wD

Ron Niles made a video that shows the probability visually and explains an interpretation of a male frog croaking with probability p:    • Video Response to "Ted Ed's Frog Riddle is...  

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My Books

"The Joy of Game Theory" shows how you can use math to out-think your competition. (rated 4/5 stars on 23 reviews) https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/150...

"The Irrationality Illusion: How To Make Smart Decisions And Overcome Bias" is a handbook that explains the many ways we are biased about decision-making and offers techniques to make smart decisions. (rated 5/5 stars on 1 review) https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/152...

"Math Puzzles Volume 1" features classic brain teasers and riddles with complete solutions for problems in counting, geometry, probability, and game theory. Volume 1 is rated 4.5/5 stars on 11 reviews. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/151...

"Math Puzzles Volume 2" is a sequel book with more great problems. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/151...

"Math Puzzles Volume 3" is the third in the series. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/151...

"40 Paradoxes in Logic, Probability, and Game Theory" contains thought-provoking and counter-intuitive results. (rated 4.9/5 stars on 7 reviews) https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/151...

"The Best Mental Math Tricks" teaches how you can look like a math genius by solving problems in your head (rated 4.7/5 stars on 3 reviews) https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/150...

"Multiply Numbers By Drawing Lines" This book is a reference guide for my video that has over 1 million views on a geometric method to multiply numbers. (rated 5/5 stars on 1 review) https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/150...