Why DPR is not a great tool: D&D

This comment was made by one of my Patrons that I felt summed this up very well,
"As someone who does data science for a living, so to speak... I think the point about assumptions baked into the model used to calculate something is very important

My mentor has a very poignant saying, "All models are wrong, but some models are useful."

As Chris points out, there are simply far too many variables to accurately model DPR in a way that makes it a truly objective comparison when comparing builds, at least as a single source or determination between "which build does more dmg". Obviously if you frame that phrase and notion very precisely when doing the comparison it can be done.

However, the point I got from the video was that such precise and careful caveating is typically not what's being done.

So when people just compare DPR, absent of other consideration... they're using the tool wrong and missing the point."

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If you would like to know how I calculate damage or how baseline damage is determined, I go through it in this video:
   • How To Calculate Average Damage Per Round  

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
2:38 Variables in DPR calculations
9:44 The problem of Magic
15:18 Damage consistency
17:26 Other factors
20:15 Tactical considerations
22:05 Our lousy but only tool

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