Eyes on holiday sales impetus

Kia ora,


Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.


I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.


Today we start with news we are ending 2025 with more signs of the consequences of the Trump twist and the fading of American economic dominance. But it may not be to China where the economic power flows.


This short week is critical worldwide for retail sales, but discounting early is well set in most markets so there are fears the post-holiday 'sales' could bring anticlimactic results. And it hasn't been helped by a rambling and vengeful performance by Trump in a speech pre-billed as an indicator of economic 'progress'. Markets cast a sceptical eye on it on Friday (US time) with US bond yields rising after it.


This week will bring US durable goods order updates and industrial production updates in the US, more regional Fed factory surveys, and the Conference Board's survey of sentiment. None are expected to be very strong. But the 'official' update for Q3 GDP for the US is expected to show the result Trump is looking for.


China will be closeted in another national party conference with economic topics high on their agenda. Japan will release a range of data expected to be mixed. There will be more data from Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan. Australia has concluded its 2025 economic releases, but New Zealand will have its lending and funding data releases for November on Tuesday.


Over the weekend, China released its foreign direct investment data (https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/xwfb/rcxwfb...) and it turned higher in October, up a net +US$6.6 bln from September and higher than the year-ago gain of +US$6.2 bln, although that still leaves the year-to-date level -7.5% lower and extending the streak of contractions that began in May 2023. The current gains are actually tiny for a country the size of China. Later today they will review their official loan prime rates, but no changes is expected from the current record low levels.


In Japan, and as clearly signaled, their central bank moved their policy rate up by +25 bps to 0.75% (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci...) late on Friday. It was their second hike this year after their similar January move. Policymakers there see extended wage inflation and rising company profits. But it did point out that real interest rates remain significantly negative and that overall financial conditions are 'broadly accommodative'. Markets took these signals to be slightly more hawkish than expected and pushed the Japanese 10 year bond yield higher, to a twenty year high.


Malaysia's booming economy is now drawing in imports faster than the rise in their exports, and it was barely able to post a trade surplus in November. Exports (https://www.dosm.gov.my/portal-main/r...) were up +7.0% from a year ago, but imports (https://www.dosm.gov.my/portal-main/r...) jumped at more than twice that rate, up +15.8%.


In the US, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) was revised lower in December although up marginally from November's unusual low. It is however -28% lower than year-ago levels. Both measures for current conditions and expectations were revised down. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the year-ahead were revised up to 4.2% from 4.1% in the November survey. Perceived 'affordability' issues are building.


The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, unchanged from this time Saturday but down -5 bps from this time last week.


The price of gold (http://www.interest.co.nz/charts/comm...) will start today at US$4338/oz, and down -US$13 from Saturday, but up +US$44/oz from a week ago.


American oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$56.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$60.50/bbl and up +50 USc. From a week ago these prices are down -US$1/bbl.


The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday, now at just on 57.6 USc which is down -40 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.8, little-changed from Saturday, down -30 bps from a week ago.


The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,354 and up +1.2% from this time Saturday. It is down 2.1% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low, at just under +/ 0.8%.


You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.


Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.