Trading Options on US Debt

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Many traders might be interested in effective ways of trading options on US debt considering the apparent failure of the so called Super Committee to come to grips with the mounting US debt. Hedging risk with options is a common tactic in uncertain times like this. Trading options can also give traders a useful and profitable degree of investment leverage. Trading options on US debt can take various forms. Virtually all aspects of the financial markets will be affected by failure of the US (as well as Europe) to come to grips with mounting national debt. Stocks fell on the news that the so called Super Committee may well just be a big failure. Bond prices and the value of US treasuries have risen as interest rates have fallen. The Euro has fallen and the dollar risen of late due to the Euro debt crisis. But, the dollar could just as easily fall if calmer heads do not prevail and the US sinks deeper into debt. In trading options on US debt one can trade options on equities or on futures contracts as well.

The extreme polarization of US politics has tended to make effective governance a remote possibility, just at the time that cool heads and compromise should be the order of the day. If the dollar falls, if interest rates rise, or if stocks plummet trading options on equities or trading options on futures contracts could be lucrative even though the worldwide economy could fall into the second dip of a prolonged recession. Whether one looks to trade puts on oil or profit by buying calls on Caterpillar , predicting how the US and Europe will deal with mounting debt is critical. In a sense much of options trading today is proxy for trading options on US debt.

There are two time frames to consider when trading options on US debt by proxy with stocks, currencies, or interest rates. Over the long term both Europe and the USA need to reduce their debt burdens or do the previously unthinkable, devalue their currencies. If the two greatest economies in the world do not fix their debt issues the Forex world will devalue their currencies for them. Depending on the stock this may be a good or a bad thing. Companies that make things in Europe or the USA would benefit from cheaper currencies as their products would be more attractive in other markets. A perpetually falling dollar would tend to drive up interest rates, which would provide traders with further opportunities. All of this could play out over years. For such longer term issues traders might consider longer term options such as LEAPS. One can trade options on futures contracts that come due ten years hence but the options contract only last a few months. The other time frame is now. There are things going on today that will shape tomorrow. For example, the so called Super Committee was given exceptional powers in order to find a way to save a trillion dollars or so over the next ten years. Their apparent miserable failure is already driving markets and providing opportunities for currency, commodity, interest rate, or stock options trading as proxies for trading options on US debt.