Russia Cannibalizes Air Fleet: Groundings Spread

Russia is currently facing a mathematical collapse that extends far beyond the battlefield as the costs of the war begin to destroy the foundational economy of the state. The recent drone strike on the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar proves that the conflict is now degrading the critical energy infrastructure required to fund the federal budget and sustain global export revenue. This physical damage creates an immediate feedback loop into the 2026 fiscal outlook where skyrocketing defense spending and high interest rates are effectively bankrupting the civilian sector to pay for military logistics.

The crisis is equally visible in the aviation industry where the sudden reactivation of unsafe Soviet-era Tu-204 jets confirms that sanctions have permanently broken the supply chain for modern Boeing and Airbus fleets. While the Kremlin attempts to mask this industrial decay through a diplomatic strategy of extraction and delay, the underlying economy is cannibalizing itself to survive another year.

This briefing connects these financial failure points to the emerging Paris security guarantees which aim to replace vague political promises with automatic enforcement mechanisms. A regime that cannot fuel its tanks or maintain its commercial aircraft cannot survive a security architecture based on strict compliance. The outcome of this conflict will now be decided by logistics and financial capacity rather than political rhetoric.

CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Intro: Ukrainian Drones Hit Russian Oil Infrastructure
01:30 - Russia’s Fuel Crisis: Military vs Civilians
03:36 - Kremlin’s Economic Bleeding: The $25 Billion Toll
04:30 - Russia’s Aviation Collapse: The Cannibalization Trap
05:58 - Putin’s Negotiation Tactics: Buying Time with Lies
08:45 - Putin’s Deep Paranoia: Isolation and Body Doubles
10:43 - The Kremlin’s Downfall: The Ceausescu Scenario

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

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