二号接班人：政客陈吉宁｜Successor No. 2: Politician Chen Jining

成为此频道的会员即可获享以下福利：
   / @duwen2024  
二号接班人：政客陈吉宁｜Successor No. 2: Politician Chen Jining
朋友们大家好，欢迎大家与老杜共同关注2025年的北戴河会议。这个真正事关中国未来命运的关键20天。在习近平治下的中共政治舞台上，“接班人”一直是外界激烈揣测的热点。随着中共二十大后李强转任国务院总理，一位外表温文、曾长期从事学术研究的上海市委书记悄然成为舆论焦点——陈吉宁。坊间传言他已被习近平钦定为未来的国务院总理，被视为所谓的“二号接班人”。特别是在今年5月的习近平李强上海行，据说从那时起，这个事也就定了。这种传言背后，有他独特的履历、鲜明的个人特点和近年日益频繁的对外活动。很显然，他是本次北戴河会议的焦点人物之一。他的个人命运，将在这20天背确定。据可靠消息，陈吉宁并没有被邀请前往北戴河度假避暑，他不在受邀请的名单上，他被要求留在上海主持大局。这意味着，他最多只能是2号接班人。与之相反，一号接班人丁薛祥则一直在习近平身边。有一点可以确定，如果习近平此时拍板两年后陈吉宁接替李强出任国务院总理亦或是常务副总理，陈吉宁个人不会被正式告知，但是这种事，很快就会传到他的耳朵。当然他会假装不知道。今天老杜就从多个角度分析陈吉宁其人其事，剖析他为何会成为媒体热议的潜在接班人以及这对中西关系可能产生的影响。
Hello friends, welcome to join Old Du in paying close attention to the 2025 Beidaihe Conference—those crucial 20 days that truly concern the future destiny of China. Under Xi Jinping’s rule, the issue of a “successor” has always been a hot topic of intense speculation in the public sphere. After the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, with Li Qiang assuming the position of Premier of the State Council, a seemingly gentle and long-time academic—Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Jining—quietly became the center of public attention.

Rumor has it that he has been handpicked by Xi Jinping as the future Premier and is regarded as the so-called “Successor No. 2.” Especially during Xi Jinping and Li Qiang’s visit to Shanghai this May, it is said that the matter was finalized then. Behind these rumors are his unique background, distinct personal traits, and increasingly frequent international engagements in recent years. Clearly, he is one of the central figures at this year’s Beidaihe Conference. His personal destiny will be determined during these 20 days.

According to reliable sources, Chen Jining was not invited to Beidaihe for vacation or retreat—his name is not on the list of invitees. He has been instructed to remain in Shanghai to preside over the overall situation. This means that at most, he can only be Successor No. 2. In contrast, Successor No. 1, Ding Xuexiang, has remained constantly at Xi Jinping’s side.

One thing is certain: if Xi Jinping decides at this point that Chen Jining will succeed Li Qiang as Premier of the State Council or even as Executive Vice Premier in two years, Chen himself will not be formally informed. However, such matters would quickly reach his ears. Of course, he would pretend not to know.

Today, Old Du will analyze Chen Jining from multiple angles—examining his background and circumstances, why he has become a widely discussed potential successor in the media, and what this could mean for China–West relations.