Elliott Wave 5 Confirm or Collapse? New Pattern Forming | Elliott Wave S&P500 VIX Technical Analysis

Rob’s overall stance is cautiously optimistic: through Elliott Wave analysis he sees the market perched on key technical pivots—SPY holding its 575 support, gold and bitcoin breaking out of symmetrical triangles, and big-tech names flirting with decisive resistance levels—but warns that bond-market strain (weak TLT auctions and rising yields), a dollar under geopolitical pressure, and a lack of clear follow-through mean traders should wait for confirmatory moves above (or below) these thresholds before leaning in hard.

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:: Sections in this Video ::
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00:00 - Introduction
00:28 - US Market Overview (SPY)
02:15 - ZigZag Master Info
03:24 - VIX
04:12 - TLT
06:27 - TNX
07:14 - US Dollar
08:38 - DIA
09:45 - QQQ
11:04 - IWM
12:24 - GLD
13:52 - SLV
15:10 - BITB
16:09 - ETHW
17:19 - UNG
19:00 - USO
20:40 - NVDA
22:50 - PLTR
23:55 - TSLA
24:50 - MSFT
25:52 - AAPL
28:08 - NFLX
29:12 - GOOGL
30:19 - FXI

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Building on that outlook, Rob digs into each market segment through his Elliott Wave lens:

US Equities (SPY): After gapping above the pivotal 575 level last Monday, the S&P saw a textbook 50% B-wave retracement followed by an overshoot beyond the expected 100% C-wave extension. That extended leg primes SPY for either a deeper test of 575 support (which held intraday Friday) or the start of a fresh five-wave impulse—every impulse begins as a zigzag corrective pattern. A sustained break below 575 would invalidate the bullish count; conversely, a solid bounce and 10-day moving average hold would confirm follow-through into new highs.

Volatility (VIX): Trading in the “no man’s land” between 17.5 and 22.5, the VIX’s next Elliott Wave phase hinges on a decisive breach. A drop under 17.5 would be Wave 3 confirmation—potentially driving volatility down toward last year’s 12.5 low—while a rally above 22.5 risks a swift return toward 30, signaling equity risk.

Fixed Income (TLT / TNX): Elliott Wave structure in TLT has broken below January lows, suggesting an extended C-wave decline in bond prices (rising yields). Wednesday’s poorly bid 20-year auction accelerated that move, fracturing the 85 support zone. Meanwhile, the TNX (10-year yield) has completed a five-wave impulse up off its February low, topping out near 5% and hinting at a corrective pullback. The waves in TLT/TNX are setting up a classic risk-off rotation if yields continue higher, underscoring Rob’s caution.

US Dollar (DXY): The dollar’s triangle consolidation off April lows is approaching its apex. Elliott Wave analysis suggests a potential fifth-wave extension to the downside if support fails, which would “bar the door” for dollar bears; but holding above April’s trough keeps the bullish case intact, especially with global tariff tensions in play.

Sector & Style Indexes:

DIA: Testing the 50-day MA and Elliott Wave resistance at 425. A clear five-wave impulse completion, with clean air to 450 if cleared.

QQQ: Sitting under the 10-day MA, QQQ’s Wave 4 correction is testing 500 support. A break below would shift the wave count bearish; a rally through 525 would unlock the next Wave 3 target.

IWM: A five-wave rally from 200 to 220 left minimal overlap—200 remains the pivotal Wave 4 boundary. Holding this level and reclaiming its 10-day MA would set up an impulsive run toward 220.