Prediction Markets Growth & Evolution, Flutter Leaves India, UK Tax Hike Impacts | Ausbiz

With Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz, Tom Waterhouse analyses the rapid growth of prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi. Both saw massive growth during the recent US Presidential Election, to the point they held more turnover than traditional exchange Betfair. Recent CFTC approvals have allowed prediction markets to become financial products, opening up states that don’t allow sports betting to wager through prediction markets on sports, elections, and more.

Flutter has been forced to leave India following legislation banning online gambling. Flutter’s Junglee brand employed more than 1,100 people and had expected to generate approximately $200m in revenue and $50m in earnings.

The UK government has been one of the firmest regulators in terms of increasing taxes, stronger regulations, know your customer (KYC) requirements, and compliance. However, this has had the opposite effect of what was intended: taxation hasn’t increased, and there has been dramatic leakage to offshore black market operators. Tom explains the reasons why customers are moving offshore.