4 years of dealer markups finally BROKE today's car market

We all hate dealer markups on new cars. But whether or not you bought one at the peak of price gouging in 2021-22, those insane markups are still screwing up people's finances, the economy, and the car market today.

Four years after massive supply chain disruptions tightened the market and prompted dealers to start marking up literally every model they had, guess what? Most of the people who took out loans to pay for a marked-up vehicle are ready to trade them in. For some, it's because they always upgrade every 3-5 years. For others, they just can't afford it anymore and need to downsize.

Many of these owners, especially on the luxury side, are walking in underwater on their loans. They owe more than the car is worth now. Because even though they bought it at a lower interest rate 3-5 years ago, the markup—which is really just a surcharge for buying a car at a particular time, not a reflection of a permanent increase in value for the car—means they haven't actually built the amount of equity in the car they usually would by this time.

Until last year, banks would still let those underwater owners roll their loan into the next one, because that new loan would come with a much higher interest rate that would make the banks more money. But now, with interest rates falling again, banks aren't willing to take that risk—leaving these people stuck.

That's not great news for the economy as US auto loan debt tops $1.6 TRILLION. But here's where it's screwed you, the person who was smart enough to avoid these markups, or skip buying new altogether.

Beginning in late 2020, automakers watched dealerships make huge profits by marking up everything from Chevy Corvettes to Toyota RAV4s and figured hey, if the dealers can do it, why can't we? So automakers went ahead and started raising prices themselves—sometimes adding content to justify it, sometimes not—and planning big model lineup shifts towards high-end and luxury while eliminating their cheaper vehicles.

Four years later, these new models, more feature filled and luxurious and expensive than ever before—are hitting dealerships. Only this time, there aren't nearly as many buyers who can afford them, and the rest of us are stuck paying way more for a car that's not actually much better than the version from 2020.

HUGE thanks to Russ Richardson at ‪@russflipswhips‬ and Tomislav Mikula at ‪@Delivrd‬ for helping us with this video. Subscribe to them if you haven't!

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