The New U.S. Tariffs - Weird Formulas, Risks, & The Coming Trade War

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For decades the U.S. has been a leading force in building the global free trade system. Today, we discuss it's effort to reshape it using tariffs and some very wonky math and what that move might mean for the world.

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Reading and Sourcing :
U.S. "Reciprocal Tariff Calculations"
https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciproc...

USGS - Mineral Summary 2023
https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs...

U.S. BEA - Services Traders
https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/...

Trade Wars and How Nations Fight Them
   • Trade Wars & How Nations Fight Them -...  

US Consumer Impact
https://think.ing.com/articles/beauti...

WH Deputy Press Secretary post
https://x.com/KushDesai47/status/1907...

U.S. Trade Rep pages
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/ch...
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/eu...

"Do not retaliate"
https://www.foxnews.com/media/treasur...

Polling on Trump policy areas and/or tariffs
https://apnews.com/article/trump-poll...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.co...
https://www.reuters.com/default/trump...

Polling on retaliatory tariffs
https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/bus...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...

Lesotho
https://www.theguardian.com/global-de...

European Commentary
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/trump...
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-vo...

ASML exports to China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

US trade balance
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/wha...
https://www.afr.com/politics/the-stat...

CSIS - "Mining for Defence"
https://www.csis.org/analysis/mining-...

Allied Cooperation
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/...
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/press...
https://www.mining-technology.com/new...

Negotiations
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/...

featured articles
https://www.csis.org/analysis/balanci...
https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-ch...

"Elbows up"
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/28/canad...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...

PRC Retaliation
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4...

PRC, ROK & JAPAN Trade Ministers' Meeting
https://www.wsj.com/economy/china-say...

Caveats & Comments:

All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note, as always, that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon in any way, including to inform any financial or other decisions, views, actions etc...

Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

Quotes and included data should be considered, at most, indicative.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Intro
00:00:33 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:41 — the Tariffs
00:12:52 — Why?
00:18:58 — Complications
00:25:51 — What Makes Effective Tariffs?
00:32:08 — Trade Warfare 101
00:34:10 — US Advantages
00:38:33 — US Vulnerabilities
00:53:58 — an Alternative Strategy
01:03:06 — Channel Update