Warm January Temperatures and a Brewing Late-Week Storm System | Gulf Coast Forecast

Your Mobile-Pensacola and Gulf Coast weather forecast for Monday, January 5, 2026.

Unseasonably warm conditions are settling in across the Gulf Coast this week, with temperatures running well above normal, increasing humidity, and nightly fog becoming a growing concern. While much of the week stays dry, we’re also watching a developing late-week system that could bring showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region.

In this forecast, I break down:
Why temperatures are running 10-25° above normal this week
When fog may become an issue, including marine fog near bays and sounds
What we know so far about the late-week cold front and storm potential
What’s still uncertain, and what we’re watching next

TODAY:
Mostly cloudy and mild, with afternoon highs near 70°. Light southerly to southeasterly winds keep conditions comfortable, but help set the stage for fog tonight.

TONIGHT:
Very mild, with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Patchy to locally dense fog may develop late tonight and toward daybreak, which could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

MIDWEEK:
Tuesday through Thursday stay unseasonably warm, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, roughly 15 to 25 degrees above normal for early January. Fog remains a concern each night, especially near the coast, bays, and sounds.

LATE WEEK:
A cold front approaches Friday into Saturday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Forecast confidence is still low this far out, but we’re monitoring signals that a few storms could become strong. Cooler and drier air is expected behind the front for the weekend.

— — — — —

ABOUT NICHOLAS:
I'm Nicholas Herboso, a Gulf Coast native and broadcast meteorologist based in Mobile, Alabama. I focus on clear weather breakdowns that explain the forecast from day-to-day impacts to larger weather patterns across the Mobile-Pensacola region and the broader Gulf Coast.

If you find these forecasts helpful, consider subscribing for regular Gulf Coast weather updates. I post deeper-dive videos when patterns change or impactful weather is on the horizon.

— — — — —

FOLLOW NICHOLAS:
Twitter -   / knbhwx  
Instagram -   / knbhwx  
Facebook -   / knbhwx  
Email - nicholas.herboso@fox10tv.com