Decoding The “Chance of Success” In Your Retirement Plan

You enter your income, expenses, investments, and liabilities into your favorite retirement planner. You click a button, the software does some kind of calculation, and out pops a single number.

It may be 87%. Maybe it’s 72%. Or it could be 15%. Whatever the number, you’re told it represents your retirement plan’s “Chance of Success.”

What exactly does that mean? How is it calculated? And what “Chance of Success” should you aim for? We’ll tackle these and other questions in this video.

You'll find my article on this topic as well as links to the tools I use in this video in this article: https://robberger.com/decoding-the-ch...

Timestamps

0:00 - Chance of Success in Retirement
1:49 - FICalc
4:17 - New Retirement
6:57 - What number should we aim for?
10:14 - Rate of return assumptions
12:36 - Optimistic assumption/Pessimistic assumption
14:14 - Needing every single dime
15:02 - What if we things don’t work out as planned?
15:45 Financial Freedom

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Financial tools I use:

I track all of my investments, performance, fees, and asset allocation with Empower. It's Free:
https://robberger.com/empower

My retirement plan comes from New Retirement, the most robust retirement planner available at a reasonable cost:
https://robberger.com/new-retirement

I used Capitalize for my last 401(k) rollover. They did all of the work, and it's Free:
https://robberger.com/capitalize

My budgeting tool of choice is Tiller. It downloads all your banking data to Excel or Google Sheets:
https://robberger.com/tiller

We save and invest our credit card rewards. Here are some of my favorite credit cards:
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My Book (Retire Before Mom and Dad):
https://amzn.to/4d9qbhA

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ABOUT ME

While still working as a trial attorney in the securities field, I started writing about personal finance and investing In 2007. In 2013 I started the Doughroller Money Podcast, which has been downloaded millions of times. Today I'm the Deputy Editor of Forbes Advisor, managing a growing team of editors and writers that produce content to help readers make the most of their money.

I'm also the author of Retire Before Mom and Dad--The Simple Numbers Behind a Lifetime of Financial Freedom (https://amzn.to/3by10EE)

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DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial adviser. These videos are for educational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Your investment and other financial decisions are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research and seek professional advice as necessary. I am merely sharing my opinions.

AFFILIATE DISCLOSURE: Some of the links on this channel are affiliate links, meaning at no cost to you I earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. However, I only recommend products or services that (1) I believe in and (2) would recommend to my own mom.