Tom Lee: Japanese Bond Yields Surge, VIX & MOVE Stay Muted

TOM LEE: Japanese bond yields surge + Greenland trigger risk-off, but VIX and Bond VIX (MOVE) show muted reaction. $AMD $KLAC $PWR $MSTR $GEV

•📈 Granny ETFs Performance: For the week ending 1/16/2026, GRNY is up 1.25% vs. a decline of 0.36% for the S&P 500 (+160 bps relative). GRNJ is up 4.40% vs. 1.58% for the Russell 2500 (+283 bps relative), and GRNI is up 0.99% vs. a decline of 0.36% for the S&P 500 (+135 bps relative). For 2026, Year to Date, GRNY gained 4.47% vs. 1.44% for the S&P 500, a relative outperformance of 303 bps.
•🏛️ Japan Yields Spike, Markets Steady: Macro attention has shifted to a sharp surge in Japanese government bond yields to multi-decade highs, outweighing recent Greenland-related geopolitical headlines. Despite the magnitude of the move, volatility remains contained, with the bond VIX (MOVE) subdued, indicating markets are monitoring risks without signaling broader stress.
•📌 Themes Driving Performance: The primary themes contributing to performance across the Granny Shots ETFs include Seasonality as the top-performing theme, followed by Style Tilt, and Energy/Cybersecurity, reflecting the broader macro and geopolitical developments currently in focus.

VIX Index: is the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility of the S&P 500 Index, derived from option prices.
MOVE (Bond VIX) Index: is the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate, which measures the market’s expectation of near-term volatility in U.S. Treasury yields, derived from options on Treasury futures.
Russell 2500 Index: measures the performance of the 2,500 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing U.S. small- and mid-cap stocks.

About Fundstrat Capital:
Fundstrat Capital is an investment management firm led by Chief Investment Officer Tom Lee, specializing in thematic, research-driven equity strategies. The firm applies in-depth macroeconomic, industry, and market trend analysis to develop actively managed investment solutions for a broad range of investors.

About the Granny Shots Strategy:
The Fundstrat Granny Shots strategy, grounded in Fundstrat’s evidence-based research, identifies the macro forces shaping markets and applies them through a disciplined, rules-based investment approach. By integrating longer-term structural drivers with shorter-term tactical factors, the strategy seeks to deliver long-term capital appreciation.

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