Mathematically Proving which Pokémon Should Learn Surf

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Prior attempts I could find at solving the Wailord problem:
My two personal favorite estimations are from William Farmer at the University of Leicester (https://journals.le.ac.uk/ojs1/index....)
And by Sam Flower at Tom Rocks Maths (https://tomrocksmaths.com/2021/12/10/...)
https://blueditto.blogspot.com/2014/0...
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/...
https://scientificpokedex.tumblr.com/...
  / an_extensive_writeup_is_wailord_actually_l...  

Known errors:
There's an erroneous red dot visible for a few seconds at one point. Can anyone spot it?
I accidentally left some details from Horsea's card on Tatsugiri's card, but the point stands that Tatsugiri's density is still too high.
#pokemon #science #maths