Josh Young: The ‘Oil Glut’ Myth & Why $100 Returns

Recorded on October 20, 2025. #Millettian

Energy investor Josh Young (Bison Interests; author of the Basin Insights newsletter) explains why today’s oil price looks shockingly low in inflation-adjusted terms, how a rare geopolitical lull has masked true risk, why U.S. crude supply likely declines at current rig/spread counts, and how a coming mining boom could add hundreds of thousands of barrels/day to demand. He also shares insights from closed-door meetings with OPEC in Vienna and why proving real vs. claimed spare capacity may redefine the market over the next 6–18 months.

Guest: Josh Young — Portfolio Manager, Bison Interests; Publisher, Basin Insights
• Newsletter: https://BasinInsights.info

• (Business) Bison Interests https://bisoninterests.com/
• Note: Guest recounts OPEC meetings & spare-capacity work; discussion spans WTI at ~$57, U.S. decline risk, and mining-driven demand.

Topics & Highlights
00:00 Intro & why oil at $57 WTI is “shockingly low” in real terms
03:09 Supply: Guyana, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Iran, Libya offset U.S. flatlining
04:34 The geopolitical lull and why disruptions are unusually low now
08:19 Price suppression → shortages → spikes (Nixon analog)
10:13 OPEC’s goal: avoid super-spike; prove real spare capacity; internal quota politics
17:58 Why lifting quotas exposes overstated spare capacity; market repricing path to $80–$100
24:50 Who hurts at $60? Josh says big caps with bloat, not lean small caps
32:50 Triggers for higher prices: U.S. crude decline, field-level data, offshore limits
40:37 Matt Simmons revisited: Ghawar vs. tech & secondary recovery in KSA
48:56 1–5 year view: U.S. down 0.5–1.0 Mbd possible; service/labor constraints to ramp back
56:14 Mining demand shock (gold/silver boom → diesel use) could surprise to upside
01:03:32 Where to find Josh: BasinInsights.info (newsletter)

Host & Channel Links
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Andy Millette – Host
🌐 Website: https://www.NaturalResourceStocks.net

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💼 LinkedIn:   / andymillette  

Steve Yang – Co-Host
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💼 LinkedIn:   / steveyang88  

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