EP. 308 - Darwin Under the Microscope

🎙️This episode was inspired by a thoughtful message from a listener who challenged us to dig deeper into Darwin’s property market after we referenced it briefly on a previous show. Some investment advisors are touting Darwin as their top pick for capital growth in 2025, so Mike takes the reins to explore if Darwin’s time in the spotlight is finally back.

🏠 Why Darwin, and Why Now?
Michael, one of our listeners, shared compelling on-the-ground insights about a surge in investor and buyers’ agent activity. From off-market sales and investor loans soaring in the NT, to Buyer’s Agents reportedly purchasing 20+ properties per week—Darwin’s market seems to be heating up fast. Cate reflects on the risks of artificial price uplifts when too many Buyers Agents flood a small market and shares her cautious optimism. Yes, Darwin has clocked over 1% monthly growth in both March and April, but as she reminds us—two data points don’t make a trend line.

💬 Investor Buzz
Recent growth figures are starting to align with Michael’s anecdotal evidence. Darwin may finally be rebounding after an 11-year slump—longer than any other capital. But is it investor-fuelled, or is there something broader taking place in Darwin?

📊 Data, History, and Economic Context
Dave offers a reality check with stats: Darwin housing values are still 4.9% below 2012 levels. Despite high rental yields (the best in the nation), long-term growth has lagged, and the market’s small size adds volatility-risk. Cate and Dave also explore the city’s unique profile:

Population: ~150,000
Heavy reliance on public sector employment
Mining = 30% of NT’s revenue
Home ownership below national average
Government stimulus and generous first-home buyer grants
📉 Risk or Reward?
Darwin’s rental yields and affordability are attractive, but economic diversity, investor saturation, and project delivery are key concerns. Cate shares the practical challenges of property upkeep from afar, while Dave reflects on the pitfalls of yield-chasing strategies.

🔮 Will Darwin Shine in 2025?
The Trio agrees: Darwin has had remarkable highs (second-highest median house price in the late 90s and early 2010s), and harsh lows. With strong early signals and renewed investor interest, it may be poised for a comeback—but sustainability is the real test.

🎧 Tune in now for a balanced, data-backed, and researched discussion on whether Darwin is worth your investor attention in 2025.

…. and our gold nuggets!

Dave Johnston’s gold nugget: Dave considers the rationale that other advisors have applied to their reasons to purchase in Darwin. He factors in the growing defence risk, listing figures, days on market and wages growth. Combining these factors gives listeners an interesting insight into the capital city that may just become the strongest capital city performer of 2025.

Cate Bakos’s gold nugget: When we consider the research, the data and the number of other cities around our nation with 150,000 people or more, Cate wonders which other cities could stand as good, long-term performers for investors.

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