IMO Update: Eruption Likely Until February 2026, Svartsengi Volcanic System Eruption

IMO Iceland Volcano Eruption Update, Updated 25.11.2025
The amount of magma under Svartsengi continues to increase.
Key points 

The rate of magma accumulation under Svartsengi has remained fairly constant over the past two weeks.

The likelihood of magma flow and volcanic eruption continues to increase in the coming weeks.

It is not possible to estimate the timing of the next eruption with an accuracy greater than a few months.

The risk assessment remains unchanged until December 9, unless there are changes to the activity.
Estimation of the probability of a new magma flow and volcanic eruption based on model calculations

Landslides and magma accumulation under Svartsengi continue. The rate of magma accumulation has remained fairly constant over the past two weeks. Model calculations estimate that between 16 and 17 million cubic meters of magma have accumulated under Svartsengi since the last eruption in July.

The amount of magma that flowed from Svartsengi into the Sundhnúk crater range in the eruption that began on July 16 was estimated to be around 11 – 13 million m 3 . Based on experience with eruptions in the Sundhnúk crater range, it is expected that the likelihood of a new magma flow and eruption will increase when approximately the same amount of magma has accumulated under Svartsengi as flowed from there in the previous event.

In early October, model calculations showed that about 11 million m3 of magma had again been added to the accumulation area under Svartsengi. This began a period, which is still ongoing, in which an increased probability of a new magma flow and eruption must be expected.

Slower rate of magma accumulation increases uncertainty in timing of next event

In the run-up to the eruptions that have occurred in the Sundhnúk crater series, the rate of magma accumulation has varied. The magma inflow into the accumulation area under Svartsengi is currently estimated at 1 m 3 /s, but looking at recent eruptions, model calculations show that the inflow rate has gradually decreased with each eruption. The slower the magma accumulation, the more difficult it is to estimate the timing of the next eruption. Based on current knowledge of the events in the Sundhnúk crater series, it is not possible to estimate the timing of the next event with an accuracy greater than a few months.

Experience from recent events has also shown that the rate of accretion does not need to change much to shift the timing of the next possible eruption by a few weeks. The uncertainty in the timing of the next event is therefore considerable and the current magma accretion period could be prolonged. 

Looking at eruptions in the Sundhnúk crater series since March 2024, the average volume of magma that has flowed from Svartsengi is about 23 million m 3 . Assuming that the rate of magma accumulation remains unchanged, this volume will be reached in early February 2026, as can be seen in the following graph, which shows the development of magma accumulation under Svartsengi since the last eruption in the Sundhnúk crater series.

Diagram: A graph showing model calculations of magma accumulation at a depth of 4 km beneath Svartsengi from July 17. The black dots show daily model calculations of magma volume from July 2025 to the present. The shaded area following the dots represents the forecast of magma accumulation assuming that the magma accumulation rate remains unchanged. The yellow area of ​​the graph is determined by the “lower” and “upper” volume limits in the model calculations and based on this, the period is estimated during which an increased probability of magma flow and eruption is considered. “Mogi” represents the name of the model used in the calculations.

Seismic activity at Svartsengi and Krýsuvík

Low seismic activity continues to be measured at Svartsengi and Grindavík. Seismic activity at Krýsuvík continues to decrease and deformation measurements show that subsidence at Krýsuvík has more or less stopped.

Risk assessment 

The hazard assessment map has been updated and will remain unchanged until December 9, when a new scientific consultation meeting will be held. The Icelandic Meteorological Office is closely monitoring developments and will update the assessment if there are changes in activity.
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