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Today’s Jobless Claims report is the most important labor print of the month. After yesterday’s shocking ADP contraction, markets are on edge — was it a one-off collapse or the first real sign of recession? With continuing claims already climbing to multi-year highs, the trend is getting harder to ignore. If claims come in above 225K, traders will likely price in a December rate cut and the dollar could weaken fast. But if we land below 220K, the Fed may have to rethink rescue mode, and risk assets could face whiplash.

In a data-starved environment, one number now decides everything.

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