Start Fooling Yourself & The Market Has No Pity | Vineer Bhansali

A Harvard theoretical physicist who never took a finance course built the exotic options desk at Citibank, ran 50+ ultra-marathons including Death Valley in 120° heat, and returned 900% during 2020's chaos. His secret isn't prediction—it's preparation.

Markets entered a regime change in 2020 that most investors still don't see. The 40-year "great moderation" of falling inflation, low volatility, and reliable diversification is over. We're back in the 1970s playbook: rising volatility, breakdown in correlations, and portfolio insurance that actually matters.

The Three Regime Framework:
→ 1960-1987: Rising inflation, central banks behind the curve, diversification fails
→ 1987-2020: Falling yields, falling volatility, the "peace dividend"
→ 2020-present: Return to chaos, regime change most missed

His 1994 lesson cost him his face. Fresh trader, bond market cratering, he tried catching the falling knife. "The market has no pity. You gotta last long enough to get to absolute truth." That became his philosophy: own convexity before you need it, not when crisis hits.

Convexity vs Linearity:
→ Straight lines = predictable, reactive strategies work
→ Curved markets = acceleration compounds, you can't react fast enough
→ Build asymmetry into portfolios before the earthquake

The analogy: You don't buy California earthquake insurance during the fires. UHNW portfolios need structured tail hedges the same way coastal properties need hurricane coverage—it's not a cost, it's the price of staying in the game.

Books mentioned:
The Story of My Experiments With Truth (Gandhi)

For investors who survived April 2nd and realized they got lucky.

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