Expert Talk: Stephen Herzog on Non-Proliferation & Deterrence

Dr. Stephen Herzog is the professor of the practice at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and the co-chair of the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center’s Beyond Nuclear Deterrence Working Group. Herzog is a former policy debater and he talks us through what kinds of topics students should explore on the French Nuclear Sharing Topic. Here are all mentioned articles.

Herzog’s recent work on the global nuclear order after the Ukraine war: https://www.amacad.org/publication/al...
Herzog’s work on nuclear weapons and AI: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi...
Ken Waltz “More May Be Better” https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/1...
Scott Sagan “The Perils of Proliferation” https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539178
Waltz and Sagan continue their debate in this book https://politicalscience.stanford.edu...
For the claim that there may have been up to 1,000 nuclear close calls:
Sagan’s “The Limits of Safety” https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvzsmf8r
Eric Schlosser’s “Command and Control” https://www.penguin.com.au/books/comm...
“Atomic Backfires” https://mitpress.mit.edu/978026205185...
Thomas Schelling “The Strategy of Conflict” https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/067...
Here is an analysis of Schelling’s theories by Robert Jervis https://warontherocks.com/2016/12/tho...
The Black Brant Scare https://armscontrolcenter.org/the-nor...
Benoît Pelopidas on self-censorship https://academic.oup.com/jogss/articl...
Benoît Pelopidas on luck https://www.cambridge.org/core/journa...
Robert Jervis “The Nuclear Revolution” https://www.jstor.org/stable/2150972
An introduction to the stability-instability paradox in the context of South Asia https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-conten...
Sagan on France developing nuclear weapons for prestige: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539273
McDermott, Lopez, & Hatemi on the emotional nature of tripwire forces: https://tnsr.org/2017/11/blunt-not-he...
Herzog, Allison, & Ko “Under the Umbrella” https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1...
FAS “Status Of World Nuclear Forces” https://fas.org/initiative/status-wor...
Herzog & Sukin “The Dueling Nuclear Nightmares” https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2...
Gibbons & Petrovics “A-Bomb for the People?” https://academic.oup.com/jogss/articl...
Kim, Byun, & Ko “Remember Kabul?” https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/...
Palantir blog on the “kill chain” https://blog.palantir.com/ai-automati...
Robock & Toon https://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pd...
The Medical Effects of the Nagasaki Atomic Bombing https://www.genken.nagasaki-u.ac.jp/a...
A People’s Record of Hiroshima https://hpmmuseum.jp/virtual/VirtualM...
Matthew Bunn estimates 10-20% chance Russia uses a nuclear weapon in the Ukraine conflict https://www.npr.org/2022/10/04/112668...
US Intelligence reported 50% chance of nuclear use in Ukraine https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/...
Dr Stephen Herzog’s Site Page https://nonproliferation.org/experts/...

0:00 Introduction
3:50 Arguments for Non-Proliferation
9:30 Psychology in Deterrence Theory
14:45 Nuclear Close Calls
16:45 Critiques of Realism and Rationalism
22:45 Nuclear Sharing
39:30 Host Country Demand
40:45 Proliferation Scenarios
43:00 Rhetoric and Retrenchment
46:50 Arsenal Expansion? Unlikely
49:00 US Retrenchment
58:30 Artificial Intelligence in Command and Control
1:08:00 Spark
1:21:10 “Nuke” Language Critique
1:23:10 Conclusion