Fed on Pause, Markets Charge Ahead — Trouble Brewing? | Elliott Wave S&P500 VIX Technical Analysis

Rob Roy remains cautiously bullish on the US market, noting the S&P’s breakout above 575 but expressing concern over the lack of a healthy pullback to confirm support. He highlights a divergence between rising equity prices and declining Fed liquidity, which often signals risk of a short-term correction. While the Fed is now expected to delay rate cuts until September or later, yields are rising and the yield curve has flattened. The dollar is holding in a constructive range between 100 and 104. Rob emphasizes that staying above 575 keeps the uptrend intact, with resistance near the 610 level.

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:: Sections in this Video ::
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00:00 - Introduction
00:27 - SPY
01:57 - SPX & Fed Liquidity
05:41 - Bond Market (TLT)
06:42 - US Dollar
07:55 - GLD
09:09 - Special Guest! Gold Information - DO NOT MISS THIS!
14:04 - GLD (continued)

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Rob points to the importance of liquidity as the most significant force behind market movements. A chart produced by HUBB’s AI team shows the S&P continuing higher even as Fed liquidity shrinks—an unsustainable divergence that has historically preceded drawdowns. He notes a brief tick-up in liquidity recently, but uncertainty remains high. Rob also discusses Elliott Wave structure on the S&P chart, explaining that while the current pattern resembles a zigzag, it has not yet re-labeled into a full five-wave impulse. If the market continues higher, the C-wave may eventually be upgraded to a wave 3, but this will depend on algorithmic confirmation from HUBB’s Elliott Wave engine.

Turning to the bond market, Rob shows TLT breaking lower, indicating rising yields. The yield curve is no longer inverted but has flattened—suggesting economic caution without signaling immediate recession. The lack of bond market support adds to the uncertainty surrounding continued equity strength.

On the currency front, Rob explains why he’s relieved the US Dollar hasn’t broken down below key support at 100. While a weaker dollar can benefit multinational earnings, losing USD dominance as the global reserve currency would have far-reaching negative implications. Holding within the 100–104 range is ideal from a macro stability perspective.

The conversation then shifts to gold, where Rob revisits a symmetrical triangle breakout on GLD that recently pulled back to the 50-day moving average. The current wave count is still unconfirmed, and Rob underscores that this consolidation phase could either mark the end of the recent rally—or just a pause before another surge.

To provide deeper insight, Rob introduces Jeremy Blossom, Senior Market Strategist at Advantage Gold. Jeremy reiterates his bullish stance, reminding viewers of his accurate $3,000+ gold call from November 2024, when gold was trading near $2,600. He now believes the recent run is just the beginning of a multi-year gold and silver rally. He shares insights from a recent meeting with economist Kenneth Rogoff at Harvard, who warned that structural changes in the global monetary system are accelerating much faster than anticipated—compressing what was once thought to be a 5–7 year shift into just months.

Jeremy also announces that everyone who attends their upcoming live webinar on May 21 at 7:00 PM ET will receive a free hardcover copy of Rogoff’s latest book, which outlines strategies for navigating currency shifts and building lasting wealth. Attendees must have a US phone number to qualify.

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