Will the US stop China from invading Taiwan? - 美國會阻止中國攻打台灣嗎？

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The conclusion of this article is way more pessimistic than the reality in my opinion. It doesn't take into account some of the factors that make it very unlikely for China to take this kind of risk. Taiwan is not as defenceless as portrayed in this article. What do you think?

De Standaard Dutch article: https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20211...

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Transcript:
the title of the article is the following:
'whether China will attack Taiwan in the near future mainly depends on the US'
rising tensions: we will not bow to the pressure from China says Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen
but Beijing's hunger for making the island like a second Hong Kong seems to keep growing
reunification with Taiwan is a historic mission that must and will be accomplished
Chinese president Xi Jinping said this on saturday in the great hall of the people in beijing
it is not the first time that a chinese leader has expressed this intention
since Mao Zedong all of Xi's predecessors harbored that thought
the island of Taiwan separated from the motherland after the communist revolution of 1949
over the past 70 years, Taiwan has been developing as a prosperous free nation
but beijing still sees it as a rebellious province
however, this was mainly just big talks because when it came to the military,
China was no match for the United States who dominated the south china sea area
and thus guaranteed Taiwan's independence
Xi Jinping's words on saturday weren't even the most menacing that he ever spoke
he called a reunification with Taiwan essential for the rejuvenation of China
but said it is in the interest of the entire nation including our 'Taiwanese compatriots' (i quote)
that the reunification takes place peacefully
but the difference is that this time around,
his message did not sound like a vague intention or plan
but rather a concrete plan for the near future
Xi's Taiwanese colleague Tsai Ing-Wen reacted with determination
Taiwan is no longer seen as the orphan of Asia
but as a sovereign nation full of decisiveness she said in a speech on the occasion of the national holiday
we will not bow to Chinese pressure
but what do these words mean if the much more powerful people's republic unfolds its power
Xi's hunger for making Taiwan a second Hong Kong seems to be growing
and militarily Taiwan's power is even less significant than in the past
because the mandatory military service has been abolished
the country only has a limited professional army
Tsai does say that there will be more investments in the military
but whether that will be enough is highly questionable
moreover, the mood has seemed exceptionally heated in recent weeks
since the Chinese national day on october 1st
some 200 Chinese fighter aircraft
have flown through the air defense identification zone of Taiwan
that is not the same as violating sovereign airspace, but it can count as a clear provocation
the question that remains is what will the US do when it really comes down to it
since Washington established diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1979
it has been playing a strategically ambiguous game and has no more troops in Taiwan
however, the wall street journal reported that two dozen special forces
and an unknown number of paratroopers have been stationed on the island for a year
their task is mainly to better train the Taiwanese army for a potential confrontation

文章標題如下：
“中國在不久的將來是否會攻擊台灣主要取決於美國”
緊張局勢升級：台灣總統蔡英文表示，我們不會屈服於來自中國的壓力，
但北京愈來愈渴望使該島成為第二個香港，
與台灣統一是一項必須而且將完成的歷史使命，
中國國家主席習近平週六在北京人民大會堂這樣說，
這已經不是中國領導人第一次表達此意圖了，
自從毛澤東以來，習近平的所有前任都認為，
台灣島在 1949 年共產黨革命後與祖國分離，
當年國民黨政府逃離共產黨在這避難，
在過去 70 年，台灣已經發展成為一個繁榮的自由國家，
但北京仍然認為它是一個叛離的省，
然而這大致上是過於誇張的說法，
因為在軍事方面，美國控制了南海地區，而中國不敵美國，
從而保障了台灣的獨立，
習近平週六的言論甚至不是他說過最具威脅性的，
他稱與台灣的統一對中國的復興至關重要，
而他表示和平統一符合
包括我們“台灣同胞”在內（我引述）
的整個國家利益，
但不同的是，這一次，
他的訊息並沒有聽起來像一個模糊的意向或計劃，
而是在不久將來的具體規劃，
習進平的台灣對手蔡英文堅定地反應，
台灣已不再被視為亞洲的孤兒，
而是一個具有決心的主權國家，
她在國慶日的演說中談到，
我們不會屈服於中國的壓力，
這些話針對如果中華人民共和國展現更強大的武力，
習進平日漸渴望將台灣變為第二個香港，
軍事上，台灣的軍事力量比過去明顯更少，
因為義務役已經被廢除，
這國家只有有限的職業軍人，
蔡英文表示會增加對軍隊的投資，
但這樣是否足夠值得高度懷疑，
此外，自從 10 月 1 日中國國慶節，
最近幾週以來情緒似乎異常激動，
大約 200 架中國戰機，
飛過了台灣防空識別區，
這雖和侵犯領空是不一樣，但它可以視為一個明顯的挑釁，
剩下的問題是，當它真的發生的時候，美國會如何做，
因為自從華盛頓（美國政府）在 1979 年與北京建立外交關係，
就一直在玩弄一種戰略模糊的遊戲，沒有派駐任何軍隊在台灣，
然而，華爾街日報報導聲稱，
幾十位特種部隊和數量不詳的傘兵已經在島上駐紮了一年，
他們的主要任務是更好地訓練台灣軍隊準備可能的對抗，
但美國本身是否準備好與中國發生軍事衝突，
在必要時保護台灣？
拜登總統維持對中國的貿易制裁，
並承諾在其他北約國家的幫助下支持台灣，
但中國和美國都越來越懷疑，
拜登或任何下一任美國總統是否會做出不受歡迎的決定，
讓美國人冒著生命危險，
為地球另一端的島嶼主權而戰，
在中國電視上，退役海軍高階軍官滕建群公開問道：
美國人會認真考慮為台灣犧牲嗎？
中國本身在軍事上變得越來越強大，
據台灣國防部長邱國正稱，
它正在大力發展兩棲運輸工具和入侵島嶼所需的設備，
到 2025 年會準備好進攻，
現在甚至不再確信美軍還具有軍事優勢，
形勢正變得非常不確定。
經過幾十年急劇成長後，
根據衛報報導，中國經濟因其長期能源短缺而掙扎，產量下降，
加上人口老齡化和政府債務，
但它也有一位比毛澤東以來最具權力的領導人，
他夢想作為重新統一中國的人而載入史冊，
十年前，當時的副總統拜登告訴習近平，
沒有什麼比一場意外開始的戰爭更糟糕，
這些話現在聽起來比以往更確切相關，
軍事演習結果並不樂觀，
在 1996 年，中國和美國之間幾乎在台灣發生軍事對抗，