Quarterly Edge: Q1, 2026 Investment Outlook: Are We in a Market Bubble?

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As Blue Chip Partners kicks off the first quarter of 2026, CIO Daniel Dusina, CFA, and Managing Partner Dan Seder, CFA, CMT, CFP® sit down to discuss the economic landscape, equity market concerns, and the evolving role of bonds in diversified portfolios. Despite lingering data challenges from late 2025, the conversation highlights surprisingly resilient U.S. economic growth, the continued impact of AI investment, and how labor and inflation remain central to Federal Reserve decision-making.

The discussion also tackles one of the most common investor questions today: are we in a stock market bubble? By examining valuations through a growth-adjusted lens, the team explains why elevated prices alone don’t tell the full story. They also explore why small-cap and international equities are quietly gaining momentum for the first time in nearly two decades, and why bonds may continue to serve as an important stabilizer as interest rates trend lower.

“For the first time since 2006, small-cap and international equities are quietly outperforming large-cap U.S. stocks.” – Daniel Dusina

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Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro & Q1 2026 outlook
01:34 – 2025 U.S. economic growth surprises
02:07 – AI investment as an economic tailwind
03:04 – Labor market trends & inflation outlook
05:12 – Are we in a stock market bubble?
07:57 – Why tech valuations look different today
10:22 – Portfolio concentration and diversification
12:56 – Small-cap and international equities gaining momentum
15:00 – Interest rates and small-cap performance
17:25 – International stocks, the dollar, and global policy shifts
20:44 – Bonds, yields, and portfolio diversification
23:07 – Key takeaways for investors entering 2026