The Death of Prigozhin -The crash & its implications for Wagner, Africa, Ukraine & Russia

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Description: Over the course of the war in Ukraine, Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin and Wagner Group became household names around the world. From their fighting at Bakhmut, to their standoffs with the Russian MoD leadership, to the dramatic march on Moscow followed by a public truce, the PMC and its leader often dominated the news.

But on 23 August, Prigozhin's story seems (so far) to have come to a very public end, when a jet carrying him and other Wagner members crashed in Russia with no reported survivors.

What does that mean for the PMC, Russia, Africa & the West? Those are questions I'll ask today.

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Comments & Caveats:
All usual caveats and notes apply - and to those I'd add those I very specifically raise in the video around the quality of the evidence we currently have.

Reading and source notes:

TASS - Business jet crashes in Tver region
https://tass.com/emergencies/1664307

Utkin's sanctions
https://www.opensanctions.org/entitie...

Russian Aviation Authority on the manifest:
https://t.me/favt_ru/1278

TASS - aircraft flight pattern
https://tass.com/emergencies/1664559

TASS - passengers
https://tass.com/emergencies/1664395

Putin on Prigozhin's death
https://www.watoday.com.au/world/euro...

Simon Rynn (published by RUSI) - Where next for Wagner Group in Africa
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research...

Moscow Times on the crash:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/0...

Reporting on Wagner handing over heavy weapons:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7...

Poland moving troops to Belarus border
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/po...

Reporting on Wagner presence near Polish Border
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-3...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...

Mark Galeotti article
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/p...

Putin orders Wagner fighters to sign pledge of allegiance
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-2...

Lavrov on Wagner operations in Africa
https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/26/r...

TASS - Lukashenko says Prigozhin's family confirm that he's dead
https://tass.com/world/1665595

Prigozhin Africa Video:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...

Reporting on Russian airlines
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/0...

UK House Foreign Affairs Committee - the Wagner Network
exposed https://committees.parliament.uk/publ...

TASS - flight recorder
https://tass.com/society/1665625

Expert reactions published by Atlantic Council
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...

US reporting on causes
https://abcnews.go.com/International/...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...

Western reporting on the crash
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-2...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...

Prigozhin in Belarus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...

Prigozhin at the Africa summit
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa...

Reporting on Niger coup
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8...

More video:
https://t.me/ENews112/15120

Video footage:
https://t.me/breakingmash/47183

Accompanying commentary:
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/08/...

Timestamps:
00:00 — The Death Of Prigozhin
01:34 — What Am I Talking About?
03:56 — Background
12:58 — What Do We Know?
23:09 — Causes & Responsibility
32:40 — What Does This Mean: Ukraine & NATO
34:24 — What Does This Mean: Africa And Overseas Operations
43:26 — What Does This Mean: Wagner Group
47:24 — What Does This Mean: Russia
52:06 — Winners And Losers?
56:28 — Conclusion
57:15 — Channel Update