Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has 4% Chance to HIT THE MOON - Earth Could Be Next

On December 27, 2024, astronomers discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 using the ATLAS survey system. What started as a routine observation quickly escalated into humanity's first real-world test of our planetary defense protocols.
By January 27, 2025, this 60-meter asteroid achieved something unprecedented: it became the first asteroid in history to reach Torino Scale Level 3, with a peak Earth impact probability of 3.1% for December 22, 2032. This triggered the first-ever official alert from the International Asteroid Warning Network.
The world's most powerful telescopes were mobilized. The Catalina Sky Survey, Gran Telescopio Canarias, and Very Large Telescope worked around the clock to characterize this threat. NASA's James Webb Space Telescope confirmed the asteroid is approximately the size of a 15-story building and spinning unusually fast with a rotation period of just 19.5 minutes.
While additional observations eventually ruled out Earth impact by late February 2025, a new concern emerged: the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 has risen to 4.3%. If 2024 YR4 strikes the Moon, the resulting debris cloud could increase micrometeoroid flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above normal levels, threatening satellites and astronauts for days.
NASA and ESA are now studying mission options for reconnaissance, deflection, or even disruption of the asteroid. Launch windows exist between 2028 and 2032, giving the international community less than a decade to prepare.
This is not science fiction. This is our first real planetary defense test.

SOURCES:
ArXiv Preprint: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.12351
NASA Science: https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system...
Universe Today Analysis: https://www.universetoday.com/article...
International Coverage: https://en.clickpetroleoegas.com.br/D...