ITC Stock Analysis | This is not the first Tax Hike | Learn from History | Latest News

In this video, I share a detailed and realistic ITC share analysis to help investors understand what is really happening behind the sharp fall in ITC shares after the government increased tax on Cig.

After the recent announcement of excise duty reintroduction on Cig from 1st February, ITC stock witnessed heavy panic selling, falling nearly 15% in just a few trading sessions. Many investors believe this fall is overdone, while others fear long-term damage to ITC’s core business.

In this video, I break down the situation point by point, using historical data, business fundamentals, financials, valuation, and technical analysis to answer one key question:
👉 Is this fall in ITC shares fundamentally justified or an overreaction?

🔍 This ITC Share Analysis Covers:

⦁ Explanation of the new cig tax & excise duty structure
⦁ Expected impact of tax hike on Cig prices & consumption
⦁ Historical data analysis of past Cig tax hikes (2015–2017)
⦁ Impact of Cig taxes on ITC revenue & profitability
⦁ Why ITC today is a very different company than 10 years ago
⦁ FMCG business growth potential & margin expansion scope
⦁ Agri & Paper business overview and future expectations
⦁ ITC balance sheet strength, cash position & dividend yield
⦁ ITC valuation analysis (PE ratio vs historical levels)
⦁ Technical analysis – key support & trendline levels
⦁ Analyst downgrades, revised price targets & consensus view

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⏱️ Timestamps

00:00 - Intro
00:55 - New Tax Explained
02:10 - Tentative Impact of New Tax
03:35 - What History Teaches us?
06:00 - ITC is a different company now
07:41 - FMCG Potential
09:38 - Agri & Paper
11:21- Balance Sheet & Financial Health
12:38 - Technicals
13:33 - Analyst Downgrades
14:35 - Final Words

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⚠️ Disclaimer:

Rohit Tripathi is registered with SEBI as an Individual Research Analyst vide Registration number INH000022543 dated August 6, 2025, and provides Research Analyst services to clients. The content shared is purely for knowledge purposes and should not be treated as investment advice or opinion of any kind. Neither Rohit Tripathi nor any associated marketing agents shall be held liable for losses incurred by viewers acting upon this content.

Investments in securities are subject to market risks, and investors are advised to read all related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM do not in any way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or assure returns.

Any views or suggestions expressed on specific positions must not be considered as advice, and Rohit Tripathi shall not be liable for any losses arising from reliance on such opinions. Further, no representation, warranty, or guarantee is made regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of information (including news, prices, statistics, or analysis) provided, and no liability shall arise for any decision made on such information. The securities mentioned are only for illustration purposes and are not recommendatory.

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