4 Archetypes, Shell, 2x2: Top Three Scenario Planning Methods Explained and Compared

This video explains the key differences between three common scenario planning methods used in futures & foresight: the 4 Archetypes method, the Shell Method, and the 2x2 Matrix.
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CORRECTION: it is more appropriate to say that the 4 generic futures are predetermined images of the future/archetypes, not predetermined narratives

REFERENCES
Scenario Archetypes Method:
Bengston et al. (2016). Alternative Futures for Forest Based Nanomaterials: An Application of the Manoa School’s Alternative Futures Method: https://www.researchgate.net/publicat...

Curry & Schultz (2009). Roads Less Travelled: Different Methods, Different Futures: https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-e...

Dator (2009). Alternative Futures at the Manoa School: https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-e...

Dator (2014). “New beginnings” within a new normal for the four futures: https://static1.squarespace.com/stati...

Jones, C. (1992). The Manoa School of Futures Studies. Futures Research Quarterly, 8(4): 19-25.

Serra Del Pino (1998). The challenge of teaching futures studies: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1...


Shell Method:
Ramirez & Wilkinson (2014). Rethinking the 2 × 2 scenario method: Grid or frames?: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science...

Schwartz (1996). The Art of the Long View: https://www.amazon.com/Art-Long-View-...

Wack (1985). Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead: https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-unc...

Wack (1985). Scenarios: shooting the rapids: https://hbr.org/1985/11/scenarios-sho...


2X2 Method:
Cairns & Wright (2018). Scenario thinking: Preparing your organization for the future in an unpredictable world: https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9783...

Chermack (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: How to create, use, and assess scenarios: https://www.amazon.sg/Scenario-Planni...

Ramirez & Wilkinson (2014). Rethinking the 2 × 2 scenario method: Grid or frames?: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science...

Wright et al. (2013). Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science...


Foresight games:
Bontoux et al. (2016). The JRC Scenario Exploration System - From Study to Serious Game: https://www.researchgate.net/publicat...

Bontoux et al. (2020). A Game for All Seasons: Lessons and Learnings from
the JRC’s Scenario Exploration System: https://www.researchgate.net/publicat...

Sweeney (2017). Game On: Foresight at Play with the United Nations: https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-e...

Thing From the Future (game): http://circulardesigneurope.eu/oer/th....

Our Futures Game (game): https://www.nesta.org.uk/feature/our-...
Scenario Exploration System (game): https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/research/...


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