S8 Ep3: ‘The Art Of Uncertainty – Embracing The Unknown’ with Sir David Spiegelhalter

In this episode of The Evolving Leader, co-hosts Jean Gomes and Scott Allender talk to Sir David Spiegelhalter, one of the world’s foremost authorities on risk and probability. David explains why embracing uncertainty, rather than trying to eliminate it is essential for leaders who want to build resilience and make better judgments in complex times.

Drawing from his latest book “The Art of Uncertainty”, David shares stories that bring statistics to life, from forecasting failures to the importance of imagination and red-team thinking. This conversation offers both a challenge and a toolkit: how to hold authority while admitting doubt, how to communicate risk with clarity, and how to lead teams toward what he calls ‘safe uncertainty’.

00:00 Introduction
03:10 How does uncertainty affect us at the most human level?
04:21 What is the starting point for embracing uncertainty?
06:38 Given all the things that have been happening in the last few years, how has your thinking evolved and what is the most exciting thing that you have learned?
11:32 Are people becoming less open?
12:44 You also note that people’s tolerance for uncertainty varies enormously. If you’re a leader, how do you manage those differences?
15:35 How do you help people understand the difference between risk and uncertainty?
19:44 How can leaders ensure that they and their teams communicate risk with clarity and precision?
22:01 You used a quiz at a recent Royal Institute talk. Can you talk us through how that might help us quantify our ignorance?
26:17 Do you know if that leads to sustainable change for people?
26:57 What else could we do to increase our confidence around what we do and don’t know in a situation of uncertainty?
27:50 Are there points in your personal life where you might not use that for yourself?
29:41 What else have you learnt about coming to terms with doubt and uncertainty?
31:42 Your book is not just a book about statistics, it’s also about (as you describe) recognising the map, not the territory?
36:22 What might need to change in organisational cultures to allow for leaders to articulate the level of uncertainty they might be feeling?
41:10 Where does luck fit into your thinking?
44:01 When people look at their decisions, how often do they conflate luck with the decision?
46:01 How can we better prepare ourselves as leaders for a more uncertain world?
48:27 At the end of your book you present a manifesto for uncertainty which helps us to recognise that it’s our personal relationship with the world that defines our perception of uncertainty.

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The Evolving Leader is researched, written and presented by Jean Gomes and Scott Allender with production by Phil Kerby. It is an Outside production.