The Economic War in Ukraine a Year On - The energy war, politics & production

Over the last year, the Ukraine war has played out both on the battlefields of Ukraine, and on global markets where energy warfare, sanctions, and industrial mobilisation efforts went head to head. Russia wanted to freeze Europe, while the Western allies sought to strangle the Russian economy with sanctions.

A year on - I want to look at how successful these competing economic campaigns have been. Setting the stage to look at battlefield developments, attrition, and force regeneration in the near future.

Patreon:
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Caveats/Corrections:
As always - unless very explicitly otherwise stated everything said should be considered to have a 'reportedly' or 'seemingly' tag attached.

I also note that my comments on survey, financial, and other data are intended to be illustrative, not exhaustive.

Sources/Reading:

LNG around the world:
https://www.dw.com/en/lng-european-th...

IPSOS polling:
https://www.ipsos.com/en/war-in-ukrai...

Europe gas prices hit low:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/17/en...

EU Gas storage:
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/in...

LNG Terminal 3 in Germany
https://www.dw.com/en/third-floating-...

Seymour Hersh's article on Nord Stream
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/h...

Hersh on Russia Today:
https://www.rt.com/russia/571690-hers...

Russia switching oil tax calculations:
https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...

Russia planning one-off contributions:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europ...

Russia plan for foreign owned assets
https://www.reuters.com/business/russ...

Sonnenfeld on Russian economy estimates:
https://fortune.com/2023/03/06/imf-na...

Russia produced economic figures :
https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collect...

https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/f...

https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/ddkp/mo...

Carnegie Endowment on Deficit:
https://carnegieendowment.org/politik...

Jamestown Foundation on RU DIB
https://jamestown.org/program/russias...

Borisov on labour shortages:
https://vpk.name/news/613140_borisov_...

Shadow fleet:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/01/bu...

Oil Sanctions:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/sanct...

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/0...

https://www.barrons.com/articles/viet...

Defence Production:
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

https://www.businessinsider.com/germa...

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/01/1...

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...

https://dtek.com/en/media-center/news...

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:02:18 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT?
00:02:49 — FREEZING EUROPE
00:03:48 — The Euro Response
00:05:59 — Climate & Culmination
00:07:20 — Cost To The Eurozone
00:09:46 — EU: Are Citizens’ Lives Heading The Right Direction? (graph)
00:11:21 — The External Costs
00:13:17 — Evaluation
00:14:02 — Side Note On Nord Stream Claims
00:17:45 — BREAKING UP UA's SUPPORT
00:20:37 — Support levels
00:21:43 — US Public Opinion
00:24:10 — More Global Opinion?
00:27:23 — Evaluation
00:27:51 — THE ECONOMIC WAR (ON RUSSIA)
00:29:02 — Energy Markets & Exports
00:34:10 — Follow On Sanctions And Induced Competition
00:35:43 — The Dispute Over Stats
00:37:23 — The Picture From Russia
00:39:01 — The Russian Budget
00:43:26 — Evaluation
00:44:26 — THE STRATEGIC BOMBING CAMPAIGN
00:46:57 — Economic Impacts
00:48:46 — The GBAD Problem
00:50:57 — THE PRODUCTION RACE - UKRAINE
00:53:25 — Strategic Imperative
00:56:28 — THRE PRODUCTION RACE - THE WEST
01:03:23 — THE PRODUCTION RACE - RUSSIA
01:06:25 — Defence Spending Is Surprisingly Low
01:08:17 — The Impact Of Sanctions & Inflation
01:14:52 — CONCLUSIONS
01:15:43 — CHANNEL UPDATE