The Cruel Math Says Most Investors Will Lose Money From Here | Danielle Park

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Well, 2025 draws to an end in just a few weeks.

What should we expect, especially in terms of the markets, in 2026?

To peer into the future, we have the good fortune to welcome Danielle Park back to the program. Danielle is president and portfolio manager for Venable Park Investment Counsel, Inc, where she manages millions for some of Canada’s wealthiest families. She's also proprietor of the daily financial website JugglingDynamite.com

Danielle warns that valuations are so stretched in the markets now that average annual returns are likely to be negative over the next 1, 3, 5 and 10-year periods -- risking a lost decade for investors.

#marketcorrection #bearmarket #housingmarket

0:00 – “We’re running a casino with better lighting” – why macro & fundamentals have been ignored
5:43 – Debt is a four-letter word: the 15-year zero-rate anomaly magnified everything
8:31 – Post-GFC bailouts chose speculation over reform – the root of today’s mess
12:59 – Is there any path to rebalancing without a real crisis? Danielle: “I’m afraid not”
15:17 – Gambling legalization + financialization turned society into short-term speculators
18:53 – Retail investors have never been more over-exposed to equities (especially retirees)
21:57 – 10-year Treasury stuck at ~4.1% – “higher for longer” is already here
22:42 – Canadian housing: real prices down 25% since 2022 peak – still not done
25:32 – 31% of Canadian mortgages reset in 2026 at 2–3× higher rates
27:17 – Even lower mortgage rates haven’t saved Canadian prices – U.S. take note
30:05 – Melody Wright 38–50% U.S. house-price drop scenario – Danielle’s reaction
31:31 – U.S. home prices still ~5× median income – “still have considerable downside”
35:47 – Massive pent-up supply: unsold inventory approaching GFC highs + Boomer downsizing wave
38:42 – Airbnb/VRBO collapse flooding rental markets – rents now falling fast
41:46 – Oil & commodities: deflationary forces winning despite wars and AI hype
44:46 – AI/data-center buildout already rolling over in non-residential investment
47:51 – Credit cycle turning: student loans, autos, credit cards all spiking delinquencies
50:00 – Stock valuations (CAPE over 35): historically 100% negative forward returns 1–10 yrs
53:05 – Global stocks-to-GDP at 2000 & 2021 bubble extremes
56:01 – Gold & silver after huge runs: parabolic, overbought, momentum-chaser driven
59:06 – Danielle’s core rules: never over 5% in one stock, over 10% in one sector – rebalance quarterly
1:01:24 – Cash + intermediate treasuries (4–7 yr) are core holdings right now
1:03:41 – “You must define your buy targets in advance” – wait for real value, not dip-buy hope
1:06:17 – Final message: “This is a good game played slow” – patience + discipline will win
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