026: Robert Carver talks trading rules and the dangers of over-fitting strategies [AUDIO ONLY]

Robert Carver is an independent systematic trader, freelance writer and research consultant.

He spent more than seven years working for AHL, one of the worlds largest systematic hedge funds.

In this episode we discuss trading rules, what makes a good trading rule and the advantages of using continuous rather than binary rules. He also shares insights into over-fitting and the challenges of walk-forward testing that can make it impractical.

Topics discussed
What makes a good trading rule
The advantages of simple rules
Why only some trading rules are profitable
Walk-forward testing and some of the challenges that can make it impractical
How much data you actually need to determine if a trading rule is better than another
Why choosing the optimal values during a walk-forward test is not the best approach and some alternatives
Weighting trading rules
Steps to avoid over-fitting
Should trading rules be adjusted for individual instruments?
Continuous trading rules compared to binary rules
The applications and advantages of continuous trading rules
What makes a good systematic trader
The issues that overconfidence creates in trading
Two aspects of institutional trading that most retail traders could apply to their own trading

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