Pantoja vs Joshua Van | UFC 323 Preview

UFC 323 Co-Main Event Preview: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van – Flyweight Title Clash

UFC Records at a Glance

Pantoja enters with an impeccable 30-5 overall MMA record, translating to a stellar 13-3 in the UFC—all at flyweight. He's on an eight-fight win streak, including four title defenses via submission, decision, and TKO. Pantoja holds flyweight records for most UFC wins (13), most submissions (7), and most finishes (7), with a 66.7% finish rate overall that's spiked to over 80% in his recent run. His path to the belt: signature chokes over Moreno and Kai Kara-France, plus gritty decisions against Steve Erceg and Muhammad Mokaev.

Van counters with a 15-2 overall record and an 8-1 UFC mark, all at 125 pounds. He's riding a five-fight win streak, boasting seven career KOs/TKOs and a blistering 2:03:52 octagon time—proof of his quick-draw finishes. His lone UFC loss? A controversial split decision to Tatsuro Taira in 2024. Standout wins include first-round knockouts of Zhalgas Zhumagulov and Cody Durden, showcasing his power against ranked foes.


Strengths and Weaknesses Breakdown

Pantoja's bread and butter is his world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu—elite pressure wrestling, seamless transitions, and a submission game that's snared 12 victims in his career. At 5'4" with a 68-inch reach, he's a compact powerhouse with relentless cardio, averaging 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing 55% of his significant strikes. His experience shines in five-round wars; he's never been finished in the UFC. Weaknesses? His striking can be wild and upright, leaving openings for counters, and at 35, questions linger about his chin against youth's speed—though he's only been dropped once in 35 pro fights.

Van, meanwhile, is a striking savant: explosive Muay Thai kicks, pinpoint boxing, and vicious knees in the clinch, with a 53% striking accuracy and 4.2 significant strikes landed per minute. At 5'5" with a 67-inch reach, his youth fuels blistering pace and 60% finish rate, including two first-rounders this year. He's got sneaky wrestling to boot, stuffing 70% of takedowns. But here's the rub: His grappling defense is suspect—exposed in his Taira loss where he spent rounds on his back—and endurance fades in later rounds against grinders. Against elite BJJ? It's a massive question mark for the kid.

In short: Pantoja's ground control could smother Van's fireworks, but if Van keeps it standing early, his power might crack the champ's armor.

Winner Probability and Betting Edge

The oddsmakers are all-in on experience: Pantoja sits at -265 (73% implied win probability), while Van's +200 underdog tag gives him about 33%. Method props tilt heavily Pantoja-way—his submission at +150 (40% implied) versus Van's KO at +450 (18%). Lines opened tighter at -245 but sharpened as Van's hype cooled post his last decision win. Value? Sprinkle on Pantoja by sub if you like locks; Van by KO for the upset hunter.

My Prediction: How It Plays Out and Why Pantoja Wins

This one's a grappler's delight in a striker's clothing. Van comes out hot, peppering Pantoja with leg kicks and jabs to disrupt rhythm, maybe even wobbling the champ with a flying knee in Round 1. But Pantoja's no fool—he'll weather the storm, clinch up, and chain wrestle into top control by Round 2. Van's takedown defense holds early, but Pantoja's pressure is suffocating; expect him to hunt the back or guillotine as Van scrambles.

I see Pantoja submitting Van via rear-naked choke in Round 3 or 4. Why? Superior BJJ edges overwhelm Van's untested ground game—Pantoja's snared bigger threats like Moreno, and Van's never faced this level of chain wrestling. At 73% probability, the champ's experience trumps Van's youth; the kid's a future star, but 2025 ain't his takeover year yet. Pantoja rolls to 31-5, extending his reign as flyweight's devourer.

Tune in Saturday; this could steal the show from the main event. Who ya got? Drop your picks below. Until next time, fight fans—train hard, stay fearless.