The courts’ Bayesian argument in both cases of Lucia de Berk and Lucy Letby
Автор: Richard Gill
Загружено: 2025-03-04
Просмотров: 3190
In both trials the judge or judges argue that one can convict the defendant on certain murder charges without giving any explanation of how the murder was carried out. Having agreed on some other convictions enables proof of yet more without much evidence. The Dutch judges wrote out this argument in full detail. The argument is logically correct but does depend on certain premises being true before you can apply it. Its conclusion is overthrown by undermining any of the premises. The house of cards then collapses. I argue that the argument is best seen in the light of Bayes’ theorem: posterior odds equals prior odds times likelihood ratio. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
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