RenMac Off-Script: Lack of Conviction

RenMac discusses the Fed’s risk-management cut and the political dynamics shaping Powell’s next moves, why the internal divisions on rate cuts matter for markets, and what the latest housing and construction data signal for jobs and growth. The team also looks at how small caps and cyclicals are powering breadth in the market, whether momentum can outlast beta, and how tariff politics and regulatory shifts add new wrinkles to the outlook.

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Timestamps

00:00 Welcome to RenMac Off-Script & Disclaimer
01:56 Fed meeting recap: 25bp cut, internal dynamics
06:48 FCC/Kimmel saga: media-regulatory risk calculus
11:57 Housing check: starts, permits, sales, builders vs. products
18:01 Yield-curve normalization: rates signals “matter again”
23:09 Mailbag reboot: video questions debut
23:43 Mailbag Q: SEP puzzle—higher growth/inflation, lower rate path
28:35 Policy watch: Xi–Trump call, NVIDIA–Intel, UNGA, U.S.–India trade, shutdown math
33:05 Data calendar: PMIs, housing, core PCE; Powell & Gov. Myron speeches
34:34 Market setup: cyclicals vs. defensives, small-cap breadth, semis, rates
36:40 Shout-outs & Closing remarks